November 19, iron ore futures hit a new low since January 17, 2019 after the recent continuous rebound, today's intraday limit once hit 598.5 yuan / ton, the third day in a row to rebound. Under the linkage of futures and stocks, A-share iron ore concept stocks are also collectively stronger today, Hegang resources rose by the limit, Dazhong Mining once rose nearly 10%, Jinling Mining once rose nearly 8%, Jiugang Hongxing rose more than 5%, and Linggang shares rose more than 3%.
"Click to see the iron ore futures market.
SMM believes that near the end of the month, the flat control task of crude steel in some steel mills has been completed, and there is more good news in the downstream real estate market, and the market has increased expectations for the resumption of production of steel mills; on the other hand, coke has fallen 7 times in a row, mineral prices are also at a low level, and the profits of steel mills have rebounded somewhat, and there is some support for mineral prices in the short term. However, in the medium and long term, the accumulation of ports continues, environmental protection restrictions occur frequently in the northern heating season, the pattern of strong supply and weak demand has not changed, and mineral prices continue to operate under pressure.
Institutional point of view:
South China Futures pointed out that there are three reasons for the rebound in iron ore: 1. The lowest valuation plate, as long as 4 months of negative decline time, coupled with the halving of the decline, resulting in iron ore relative to other varieties of low valuation, the lower space is more and more limited, which is also one of the important reasons why the capital dare to enter the market; 2. Speculation resumed production, it was reported that large steel mills resumed production in December, with a hot rolling cycle increment of more than 800000 tons; in addition, the production limit of pollution in Tangshan and other places was lifted. According to the analysis, the late cold wave is coming, and it is about to enter a cold winter, and it is difficult to see signs of turning in the indicators of demand, so the author has to put a question mark on the expectation of resuming production. 3. The marginal improvement in real estate, after Friday's signal of a slowdown in real estate policy, some funds rekindled confidence in real estate and entered the iron ore market.
Everbright Futures believes that: from the demand side, affected by last week's real estate news, the whole black system is highly volatile, while iron ore has fallen sharply since July, and the recent increase in demand downstream of the transaction is expected to increase, and iron ore prices have rebounded strongly. However, the actual iron ore demand is still weak, and port inventories continue to accumulate to high levels. It is expected that iron ore prices will stabilize mainly after a small rebound in the near future.
Baocheng Futures said that the production restriction policy continues to be implemented, the weak pattern of ore demand remains unchanged, and the arrival and shipment of miners are ushered in a rebound, coupled with the high level of domestic storage in Hong Kong, the supply is limited, the contradiction between supply and demand in the mining market has not been alleviated, the upward drive of mineral prices is not strong, it is not recommended to chase more high, relatively positive is the cost support to bring downward resistance, it is expected that the follow-up mineral prices will still be low and volatile.
HNA Futures believes that the "good" news accumulated since last Friday was concentrated yesterday, with a comprehensive effort for multiple reasons, such as the marginal improvement of real estate, the expected resumption of production by steel mills, the marginal improvement of thread demand, and so on. The market of all kinds of iron ore has turned red, especially the rebound of iron ore, but we do not think it is enough to hedge against the general environment of production restrictions in the heating season and the tightening of production restrictions in the future Winter Olympic Games. Operationally, after the release of Lido emotion, you can go short at a high level.
