Lithium salt Q3 is not as good as expected? Materials rising, price rising lagging behind Q4 price growth may slow down

With the successive disclosure of the three quarterly reports of lithium salt companies, the voice of "less than expected" in the capital market is getting stronger. According to the lowest net profit in the forecast, the month-on-month growth rate of Ganfeng Lithium Industry (002460.SZ) and Jiangte Motor (002176.SZ) is negative, while the net profit growth rate of Shengxin Lithium Energy (002240.SZ) is also lower than the quarterly growth rate of lithium salt.

Different companies give different explanations for "falling short of expectations". Learned that its commonness is that the rise in the price of production materials and the lag of single price increases in the long Association have reduced the dividend brought about by the rise in the price of lithium salt. For companies with stable sources of lithium resources, the official report may not usher in the lowest value of the forecast range.

As for the performance of Q4, due to the power restriction of cathode materials, copper foil and electrolyte, the demand for lithium salt will be affected, and the rising price of lithium salt will be affected to a certain extent.

There are different reasons for the company's explanation.

In the second quarter, the average prices of battery-grade lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide were 88400 / ton and 84700 / ton respectively, while in the third quarter, the average prices of the above products were 116300 yuan / ton and 121100 yuan / ton, respectively. The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide increased by 32% and 43% respectively in the third quarter.

As of the evening of October 18, among the mainstream lithium listed companies that have disclosed three quarterly reports / forecasts, the net profit of Ganfeng lithium industry has changed from-3% to 16%; Jiangte Motor's net profit has dropped by 37%; and Shengxin's net profit of lithium energy has changed by 17% compared with the previous month. 39%. The month-on-month change in the above results did not exceed the increase in lithium salts.

As a result, the capital market began to appear lithium industry performance "less than expected" voice.

In response, the company responded for different reasons. Ganfeng lithium industry related sources explained that the company set aside about 100 million yuan in equity incentive fees in the third quarter. Jiangte Motor disclosed that, first, the overhaul of one of the lithium mica kilns and some equipment in the third quarter affected the current output to a certain extent; second, in order to meet the delivery of some processed products, the gross profit of this part was thin.

To a certain extent, the explanation of Jant Motor reflects the situation if there is no stable lithium resource or market pressure. Huaan Securities Metal New Materials researcher said that from the perspective of zero unit price, the price of lithium concentrate was upside down relative to the price of lithium salt in the third quarter, and the higher the operating rate of the zero single mine lithium salt processing plant or the more losses, the lower the operating rate, it is faced with the pressure of loss of market share and asset depreciation.

Relevant analysts said that the rise in raw material prices does increase the production cost of lithium salt, but the greater impact is the processing and purification market.

It may be difficult for the industry to exceed expectations.

If the lithium salt price month-on-month growth rate corresponds to the performance of the lithium salt company, "not exceeding expectations" will be the tone of the lithium salt company's three-quarter report. The rising prices of lithium ore, thermal coal, sulfuric acid, soda ash and other production materials, as well as the lag of long order agreement prices, are the main reasons for "not exceeding expectations". However, a number of industry insiders also said that the above factors only reduce the dividend increment, and the profit margin is still considerable.

People related to the Ganfeng lithium industry believe that many of the companies are long orders, it is difficult to enjoy the profits brought by the quarterly price surge, the price dividend will lag behind, and the price in the third quarter will have a response in the fourth quarter. Industry insiders of listed companies also said that in the third quarter, the price of lithium salt grew the fastest in September, but the long order was priced on a monthly basis, so the real reflection was basically in October.

In addition, the rise in the price of production materials has also caused some pressure. Another industry source said that due to the higher growth rate of lithium concentrate, the equivalent lithium salt price dividend of the zero single lithium salt processing plant was engulfed by lithium mines, while enterprises with higher self-supply rates were affected by the doubling of thermal coal, sulfuric acid and soda ash prices in September.

At the beginning of July, the prices of thermal coal, sulfuric acid and soda ash were 980 yuan / ton, 530 yuan / ton and 1620 yuan / ton respectively, while by the end of September, the above prices were 1720 yuan / ton, 870 yuan / ton and 3500 yuan / ton respectively. The above production materials increased by 76%, 64% and 114% respectively in the third quarter. It is worth noting that in October, the above prices still showed an upward trend.

"according to the lithium extraction process of lithium mica, about 2.1t of soda ash is needed per ton of lithium carbonate, that is to say, the recent increase in soda ash alone is nearly 4000 yuan / ton, and according to the current market, the price of 3500 yuan / ton of soda ash is not easy to find." Industry insiders of the above listed companies said.

In addition, people related to the Ganfeng lithium industry believe that energy prices (such as coal) have a greater impact on their own situation, but due to the rapid rise in product prices, the rise in auxiliary materials prices has little impact on the company as a whole. "mainly lithium concentrates and accessories, such as sulfuric acid and soda ash, the impact of the above price increases on costs will not exceed the growth rate of lithium salt prices." Some people in the industry of listed companies also hold the same view.

Q4 lithium salt price growth may slow down

The China Automobile Association (CAA) said a few days ago that the automobile industry was cautiously optimistic about the outlook for the fourth quarter due to the dual control of energy consumption, the overall high operation of commodity prices, and the slight easing of chip supply but still affected. The market is expected to be weaker than expected for the whole year. However, it remains to be seen whether new energy vehicles will be affected. Data show that the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China reached a new high in September, with the penetration rate rising to 11.6% from January to September.

According to market feedback, qu Yinfei said that consumption in the new energy vehicle market and 3C digital market has not been affected, and new energy vehicles still maintain the momentum of momentum at the end of the year, but there is limited room for lithium salt prices to rise this year, although prices are still expected to rise. But the rise will slow. The reason is that production restriction leads to a decrease in the output of cathode materials, relatively speaking, the market demand has decreased, the purchasing enthusiasm of cathode materials is weaker than before, and the market prudence and wait-and-see mood are increased.

However, the logic of the tense relationship between supply and demand of lithium salt has not changed. "judging from the current supply and demand situation, the output of Q4 in Qinghai may decline somewhat, although affected by power cuts, the output of positive electrode has declined, but the terminal demand still exists, and the contradiction between supply and demand in the market as a whole still exists." Qu Yinfei further explained.

"in the next few years, the global demand for lithium salt will be relatively certain," Hua'an researchers hold the same view, but the current short-term lithium salt prices are rising too fast, in addition, such as copper foil, electrolytes, etc. affected by local power cuts, will also affect the demand for lithium salt, to a certain extent, will affect the rise in the price of lithium salt.