The problem of underproduction of semiconductors that has plagued the world since last year shows no sign of abating. Most signs are that the situation is deteriorating.
Apple, one of the world's largest chip buyers, also cut its iPhone13 production target by 10 million units because of chip supply shortages.
Affected by the news, Apple shares fell more than 1% in after-hours trading, and the market capitalization lost more than 210 billion yuan.
At the same time, Apple, which is not afraid of chip shortage, announced that the second press conference this fall will be held on the 19th (next Tuesday), Beijing time. In addition to the two-size MacBook Pro, which is equipped with Apple's self-developed high-end processor to replace Intel chip for the first time, there may be AirPods 3 "calling for her to come out shyly" next week.
Prior to this, head chip manufacturers Ruyi French Semiconductor (ST), Selin, on Semiconductor and other companies have issued price increases notice, the local exhibition Rui's smart wear product line also announced a 25% price increase. The delivery cycle of semiconductors is also on the rise, approaching 22 weeks, up from 13 weeks at the end of last year.
01 lack of core! IPhone13 will reduce production by 10 million and lose 200 billion of its market value.
Long before the release of the iPhone13 this year, Apple had asked suppliers to produce as many as 90 million new iPhone, units this year, a significant increase compared with shipments of the 2020 iPhone.
In recent years, the technology giant's mobile phone shipments have been maintained at a stable level, that is, the new iPhone sold 75 million units from the beginning of its launch to the end of the year. This year, Apple expects consumers' extra purchasing power and demand to be released after the epidemic, so this year's new iPhone will increase shipments to cope with this strong demand.
Apple is preparing to cut its 2021 iPhone 13 production target because of the chip crunch, and it is expected to produce 10 million fewer iPhone units than planned, Bloomberg reported today.
Apple's chip suppliers are mainly Texas Instruments Texas Instruments and Broadcom Broadcom. Apple gets display components from Texas Instruments, and Broadcom is a long-time supplier of wireless components. The market's leading chipmakers have warned that demand is likely to continue to outstrip supply next year and in the future.
Although Texas Instruments makes its own chips, it mainly relies on external manufacturing, while Broadcom does not have its own large factory and relies entirely on contract chip manufacturers such as TSMC to make its products.
In addition to the shortage of TI chips and OLED displays for Apple's latest iPhone, Apple also faces component shortages from other suppliers that directly affect its ability to ship new models to customers, according to people familiar with the matter.
As Wall Street reported earlier, Nikkei Asia learned on Oct. 3 that buyers of the new iPhone 13 faced longer delivery times than expected due to the epidemic in Vietnam and Apple's upgrade of the camera module. The disruption is mainly related to the limited supply of camera modules for four iPhone 13 models because a large number of parts are assembled in Vietnam, according to people familiar with the matter.
The iPhone 13 Pro and iPhone 13 Pro Max went on sale in September this year, and Apple's website is not expected to deliver the order until a month after booking, which will show that "currently unable to pick up goods at several of the company's retail stores."
In addition to facing tight iPhone supplies, Apple is also trying to maintain a normal supply of Apple Watch Series 7 and other products. Earlier this year, Apple warned that it would face supply restrictions on iPhone and iPad in the quarter ending in September.
Apple's carrier partners have seen similar delivery delays. Current orders are scheduled to ship around mid-November, so Apple can still deliver the new iPhone to consumers in time for the holiday season.
Bloomberg expects the year-end quarter to be Apple's biggest sales blitzkrieg to date, generating about $120 billion in revenue. That will be about 7% more than a year ago-and more money than apple made a full year a decade ago.
Apple is one of the world's largest chip buyers, and its huge chip demand sets the annual pace for the electronic supply chain. But even with strong purchasing power, Apple is grappling with supply disruptions that have wreaked havoc on industries around the world.
As of Oct. 12, US Eastern time, Apple closed down 0.91% at US $141.51. Affected by the news, Apple shares fell more than 1% in after-hours trading and lost more than 210 billion yuan in market value.
02 Apple official announced the second press conference this autumn, can it withstand the crisis of lack of core?
On Tuesday, Oct. 12, EST, Apple officially extended an invitation to the media to hold a live broadcast of the online special event at Apple Park, Apple's California headquarters, starting at 10:00 on Monday, Oct. 18 (1: 00 a.m. Beijing time on the 19th).
This is Apple's second launch this fall after last month's release of new products such as the iPhone 13. Although Apple did not disclose what will be released, judging from the slogan "release" (Unleashed) set by Apple for the event, the media speculated that Apple was implying that the rumored new MacBook Pro computer, which is expected to carry a high-end M1 chip, the M1X chip, would "come out shyly after thousands of calls."
In November, Apple launched a low-end 13-inch computer MacBook Pro, with an M1 chip, but a new version of the high-end MacBook Pro has not been released for two years. The new high-end version was originally expected to be released by Apple in September, but it was not unveiled in September, with media saying that Apple may have cancelled its September launch at the last minute.
The adoption of the M1X chip means that for the first time Apple will replace Intel's chips with homegrown processors on the MacBook Pro, which accounts for 10 per cent of the company's total sales. It was previously reported that the MacBook Pro, Apple's first batch of M1X chips, will come in 14-inch and 16-inch sizes.
Mark Gurman, a well-known consumer technology journalist, commented that the new version to be released will be the biggest overhaul of Apple's high-end laptop MacBook Pro since October 2016.
In addition to the above two sizes, Gurman mentioned that the new version of MacBook Pro will restore the disused HDMI port in the current version and remove the controversial Touch Bar touch bar.
Earlier this year, Apple's "prophecy", senior analyst Guo Mingyi, revealed that the high-end MacBook Pro will re-enable the magnetic wireless charger MagSafe, remove the Touch Bar, and add the built-in IO port. It is also reported that the high-end version will retain Touch ID buttons, in addition to HDMI, will also be equipped with SD card reader.
Wall Street News last month mentioned that according to market news, Apple will adopt MiniLED in its MacBook pro released in October. The LCD screen upgraded with this technology is seen as a weather vane for the notebook industry.
Due to the miniaturization of the lamp bead size, the MiniLED can adjust the brightness separately. Compared with OLED,MiniLED, it has longer service life, good fall resistance, relatively cheap price, low technical requirements and strong replicability. once it enters the scale of mass production, the structure and template of the product are basically stable in the region.
In addition to high-end MacBook Pro, media, Apple is expected to release the Mac mini, a low-end laptop supported by the M1X chip, and a new generation of wireless Bluetooth headset AirPods 3, which was rumored to be released in September. In addition to the hardware, Apple may also release the latest version of Mac's computer operating system, macOS Monterey.
Governments and industries all over the world are working hard to solve the problem of "chip shortage". Can it be, as Tesla CEO Musk said, "the chip shortage crisis will end next year?" Maybe just take a look at Apple's next-generation iPhone shipments.
03 a new round of price increases by chip head manufacturers
Some media pointed out that the fourth quarter is approaching, Italian semiconductors (ST), Selin, on Semiconductor and other original chip manufacturers have issued price increases notice, the local exhibition Rui's smart wear product line also announced a price increase of 25%.
On September 27, Italian Semiconductor issued a notice that the current shortage in the semiconductor supply chain continues to seriously affect the industry, and there is no sign of a short-term recovery, with the increase of some key supplies in the supply chain and the company's heavy investment in manufacturing. ST will raise the prices of all products, including existing inventories, in the last quarter of 2021 (the fourth quarter).
Italian Semiconductor did not release details of the price increase, saying it would be shared by the head of ST Italian Semiconductor in the next few days.
Public information shows that this is the third time that ST has issued a notice of price increase.
As early as January 1 this year, ST has announced a wave of price increases, and ST said it has decided to raise prices for all product lines from January 1, 2021. On June 1 this year, ST issued a price increase notice again, announcing a price increase for all products.
Cyrus (Xilinx), another original chip manufacturer, also released a price increase letter recently. Sailings said that the global economic situation caused by the novel coronavirus pandemic has brought major challenges and affected the global electronics supply chain, and the company is facing a significant increase in costs. To offset these increased costs, the company has increased the prices of all current and future orders, all quotations and all shipments on and after November 1, 2021. Since November 1st, the price of Xilinx products will rise by 20%.
Morse also recently issued a letter of notification, saying that it can no longer bear the pressure of rising external costs. As a result, some of the cost increases have to be passed on to some specially priced products. It has increased by more than 7% since October 1st.
Earlier this month, an on Semet price increase letter was released. On said that due to rising raw material, manufacturing and logistics costs and capacity falling short of demand, I would increase the prices of some products, which will take effect in early October. the new price will apply to new and existing backlog orders.
Not only did the original foreign chip manufacturers start a new round of price increases, but the local chip company Zhan Rui also announced a 25% price increase for its smart wearable product line.
The new round of price increases by large head chip manufacturers also reflects that the shortage of semiconductor production capacity has not been alleviated, and due to the rising prices of upstream raw materials and rising transportation costs, it has brought certain challenges to chip factories' costs and delivery. push up a new round of prices for chip factories.
Previously, Biden's $52 billion chip investment plan was designed to help solve supply chain problems, and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida also said he was committed to establishing a chip production base in the country.
04 no end of the "chip shortage"
Chip shortages are not good for chipmakers.
Manufacturers can still sell all the chips they can produce, but the problem is that they can't produce enough chips either.
The problem of underproduction of semiconductors that has plagued the world since last year shows no sign of abating. Most signs are that the situation is deteriorating. The problem has been exacerbated by the surge in the epidemic in Southeast Asia, where many chip assembly plants have been set up.
And there are signs that the chip crisis is getting worse. The chip industry's lead time, the gap between semiconductor orders and deliveries, has risen for the ninth month in a row to an average of 21.7 weeks in September, up from 13 weeks at the end of last year, according to Susquehanna Financial Group.
In some areas of the chip market, the problem is even more serious. According to Susquehanna, the MCU controller, a key part of the car, now has an average lead time of about 32 weeks. This is almost three times the historical standard.
As a result, carmakers have to continue to cut production targets; on Sept. 16, IHS Markit, a market research firm, cut its light vehicle production forecast for next year by 9.3%.
This usually bodes well for chipmakers themselves, especially as the third-quarter earnings season approaches.
However, semiconductor manufacturers are also constrained by many of the same factors as customers, such as insufficient substrates.
Micron CEO Sanjay Mehrotra told analysts during the fourth quarter conference call on Sept. 28 that the shortage of some components "will limit our recent chip shipments to some extent," according to the report. The company's revenue forecast for the quarter ended November was nearly 11% lower than Wall Street's forecast.
As a result, the upcoming results for chip companies may be mixed.
The market expects growth to remain strong. The 24 companies in the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index expect revenue to grow by an average of 23% year-on-year in the third quarter, according to Standard & Poor's Global Market Intelligence.
But it is also a significant slowdown compared with the average growth rate of 38% in the June quarter.
TSMC's results on Thursday are expected to show a 19 per cent year-on-year increase in revenue (in dollar terms), according to analysts surveyed by FactSet. By contrast, the chipmaker has grown at an average annual rate of 25% over the past four quarters.
To make matters worse, the end of the "chip shortage" may not be here yet.
According to media reports, Ganesh Moorthy, CEO of Microchip, a major supplier of MCU chips, said at an investor conference last month:
"there is no indication that we will see a balance between supply and demand between now and mid-2022."
Philip Amsrud, an analyst at IHS, expects delivery times to begin to decline at least until the first half of next year.
