Tin Price Review and Forecast【SMM post-holiday review】

SHANGHAI, Oct 8 (SMM) - LME tin fell to a low of $31,305/mt on September 30, but moved up in the following days. LME tin closed at $35,300/mt as of CST 8:00 on October 7, which was 0.24% higher than the price at CST 15:00 on September 30. LME tin inventories kept falling during the National Day holiday. As of October 6, LME tin inventories decreased by 285 mt when compared with September 30. The continuous decline in inventory allowed LME tin prices to return to the pre-holiday level. From the perspective of the disk trend, the current trend is still in the middle of the high range, and the market outlook is not clear. LME tin has found solid support at the $31,500/mt mark. If there are no major changes in the supply/demand structure, LME tin will probably remain at highs in the short term.

Large tin smelters maintained normal production during the National Day holiday, little affected by power rationing. The downstream processing companies in Jiangsu and Guangdong were greatly affected by power rationing. The market needs to pay close attention to the actual impact of power rationing after the holiday.

The factors that are worth of close attention include: 1. when will demand recover from the impact of power rationing; 2. Whether demand will sustain following concentrated pre-holiday purchases; the downward pressure on tin prices from domestic inventory growth during the holiday; how will falling LME tin inventory affect the sentiment of longs and shorts; the impact of the US government debt ceiling on the US dollar and overall market sentiment.