Silico-manganese Contract Refreshed Record High and Soared 50% in the Past Month. Where will Prices Go?

SHANGHAI, Sep 28 (SMM) - The most active silico-manganese contract rose by more than 5% to 12,130 yuan/mt as of 10:10 am today. Since the end of August, the silico-manganese futures contract has continued to rise, a gain of 50% as of now.

The supply of silico-manganese has continued to be tight since September. On September 27, the average spot price of 65/17 silico-manganese (by acceptance) in Inner Mongolia was 11,600 yuan/mt, and the quotation increased 47% in the past month.

On the news, Ulanqab Power Grid once again issued an orderly power consumption warning from September 27 to October 1. Except for the improvement of power rationing in Xingyi of Guizhou, the power rationing in other main producing areas remains underway. At present, the spot supply is still tight, so several sellers that had cargoes held back goods at low prices. On the whole, the market silico-manganese prices will remain high in the short term before the completion of the bid solicitation by steel mills.

The downstream demand for manganese alloys has trended lower. From January to August 2021, China’s total monthly actual consumption of silico-manganese (including regular silico-manganese, high-silicon silico-manganese and other non-standard silico-manganese) totalled 7.59 million mt. And China’s silico-manganese output from January to August 2021 was 7.628 million mt, exceeding the demand.

According to SMM survey, the output cut and suspension in major silico-manganese producing regions were severe in September due to the power rationing. At the beginning of the month, Guangxi, one of the main production areas, halted production substantially, and the rest of the operational companies in the middle of the month also gradually stopped production.

 The power rationing in Inner Mongolia in September had not improved and became more strict, so that many companies issued statements that they could not deliver orders normally.

Although major steel mills were also reducing production in September, the reduction in manganese alloy output was greater than that of steel mills. SMM believes that the prices of silico-manganese will continue to climb to new highs at the end of September and in October if the power rationing in the main production areas fails to improve.