Eight major brokerage theme strategy: a-share "lithium" want to fly how far? The full carding of the chain mark of non-ferrous industry

Soochow Securities: non-ferrous whole enters the rising period of demand and liquidity Resonance

Continue to be optimistic about carbon neutralization and mobility-driven opportunities for non-ferrous metal plates. With abundant global liquidity, economic recovery after the recovery of the epidemic, and superimposed on the supply ceiling of commodities in the context of carbon neutralization, we judge that non-ferrous metals as a whole have entered an upward period of demand and liquidity resonance: 1) continue to be optimistic about the strong cycle of industrial metals copper, aluminum, zinc, especially the carbon-neutral electrolytic aluminum industry, pay attention to Shenhuo shares, Yunaluminum shares, Suotong Development, Zijin Mining and so on. 2) continue to be optimistic about the upstream materials of new energy, lithium, cobalt, copper foil, rare earth, magnetic materials demand high growth to digest the valuation, recommend Huahong science and technology, Shenghe resources, Jinli permanent magnet, Yongxing materials, pay attention to the northern rare earth, Tianqi lithium industry, Ganfeng lithium industry, Jiangte motor and so on.

Everbright Securities: salt Lake lithium to help the national "lithium" want! Self-controllable and promising

The urgency of extracting lithium from salt lakes: geopolitical risks lead to fierce competition for lithium resources. Although the quality of overseas resources is of high quality, they are bound to face geopolitical instability for a long time. At present, Australian mines have a tendency to expand downstream lithium salt; Chile's new royalty bill and variable mining lease rates will also further increase mining companies' costs; the 100-day supply chain review report of the United States has also repeatedly mentioned the need to ensure a reliable and sustainable supply of key minerals upstream of the battery. It can be predicted that lithium resources have jumped to strategic metals, and the competition in the future is becoming more and more intense.

Feasibility of extracting lithium from salt lake: domestic salt lake has double advantages of reserves and mining cost. From the perspective of reserves, salt lake resources account for more than 85% of the domestic lithium resources distribution. From a cost point of view, a single ton of lithium carbonate needs 7-8 tons of lithium concentrate as raw material. by the end of June 2021, the price of lithium concentrate has exceeded 715 US dollars / ton, driving the overall cost to reach 5.5-60,000 yuan / ton. compared with the domestic production cost of extracting lithium from salt lakes is generally 30-35,000 yuan / ton, which has significant advantages, there is a bright future for the development of lithium extraction from salt lakes.

The value of domestic salt lakes is significantly undervalued: from the perspective of valuation, the average value of the core relative valuation indicators of PE (TTM), PS (TTM), PB and EV/EBITDA of domestic salt lake listed companies is 30% of that of ore lithium extraction companies; from the perspective of resource value, the average market value and reserves ratio of domestic salt lake listed companies is 24% of that of ore lithium extraction companies.

From the point of view of investment suggestions, benefiting from the continuous progress of domestic salt lake lithium extraction technology, the process combination based on adsorption shows certain advantages, and the rest of the process is also being optimized and improved. It is suggested that priority should be given to domestic companies that have salt lake resources and master large-scale salt lake lithium extraction technology. Key recommendations: Ganfeng lithium industry, Koda manufacturing. Suggested attention: Tibetan Holdings, Lanxiao Technology, Tibet Mining.

Chuancai Securities: the long-term growth attribute of rare earth products is gradually emerging.

The main reason why rare earth related targets and listed companies are favored is the increasing terminal demand. The core terminal demand of rare earth products covers three aspects, namely, new energy vehicles, frequency conversion air conditioners and wind power. Specifically, according to the relevant data of the China Automobile Association, the sales of new energy narrow passenger vehicles in May 2021 were 237000, an increase of 178.82% over the same period last year. At the same time, the China Automobile Association estimates that the growth rate of new energy vehicles will exceed 40% in the next few years. New energy vehicles have a strong demand for praseodymium-neodymium-related products, which provides support for the price increase of rare earth products. In terms of wind power, according to relevant announcements, the end of 2022 is the deadline for grid connection of wind power parity projects in 2019 and 2020, which means that there is a need for rush installation in the wind power field in the near future, and the demand will continue for some time in the future. and since the beginning of this year, related projects have a good rate of return on investment, with wind power investment increasing by 8% from January to April compared with the same period last year. In terms of frequency conversion air conditioning, under the background of carbon neutralization, there will be more room for demand in the future.

Second, the current national policy has greater support, according to the trend in the second half of the year, "rare Earth Management regulations" and other policies may be gradually introduced, the relevant industrial chain upstream and downstream companies may have more room for appreciation. In short, the long-term growth attribute of rare earth products is gradually emerging, and strategic allocation opportunities are coming. It is suggested to pay attention to: northern rare earths, Xiamen tungsten industry, Shenghe resources, Zhongke Sanhuan, Zhenghai magnetic materials.

Dongguan Securities: the price of light rare earths such as praseodymium and neodymium oxide is expected to continue to

From the legal level, we will continue to strictly control the supply of rare earths and enhance the value of strategic resources. The rare Earth Management regulations (draft for soliciting opinions) issued in January 2021 aims to clarify the systems of rare earth management in law, standardize the business order of the rare earth industry, and put an end to such problems as illegal mining, destructive mining, illegal trading of rare earth products, and so on. to establish a management system with a clear division of labor and close cooperation among various regulatory departments. The main contents of the regulations on the Administration of rare Earths (draft for soliciting opinions) include: 1) the implementation of administrative license and project approval for the separation of rare earth mining and smelting; 2) the management of the total amount index of rare earth mining and smelting separation; 3) strengthen the management of the whole industry chain of the rare earth industry, clarify the legal liability for illegal mining, smelting separation, sales and other illegal acts, and encourage the recovery and utilization of secondary resources containing rare earths, establish an information traceability system for the whole process of rare earth products; 4) improve import and export management; 5) implement rare earth resources and strategic reserves of rare earth products. The rare Earth Management regulations (draft for soliciting opinions) continue to strictly control the supply from the legal level and enhance the strategic resource value of rare earths.

It is expected that the price of light rare earths such as praseodymium and neodymium oxide will Due to the decline in production in Sichuan, the inventory of praseodymium and neodymium oxide in the split plant has declined, the spot supply is tight, and the downstream magnetic material factory replenishes the stock, but the purchase is slightly cautious and the inquiry transaction volume is OK. The price increase of light rare earths is mainly caused by the disturbance on the supply side. The quotations of upstream separation plants and metal factories are strong, and the transaction prices have moved up. It is suggested that attention should be paid to rare earths (600111) and Shenghe Resources (600392) in North China.

Tianfeng Securities: downstream enterprises may increase procurement to increase inventory cobalt prices or return to the rising channel.

The price of cobalt may return to the rising channel. Since mid-April, small cobalt salt plants with low raw material protection began to lose money, considering that April-May is the concentrated delivery period of raw materials, if the current price continues, the loss of small cobalt salt plants will increase and continue to July, and the follow-up small factories are expected to stop production and retain sales one after another. After about three months of inventory removal, downstream inventory has fallen to a historically low level, with the continued growth of terminal demand, downstream enterprises may increase procurement to increase inventory, cobalt prices may return to the rising channel.

The supply pattern is expected to be reshaped, attaching importance to the layout of Indonesia and Europe: the Democratic Republic of the Congo is the main source of raw materials and China is the main cobalt salt processing site. The flow of trade is highly single, affected by the epidemic in 2020, and greatly affected by supply-side and transport-side disturbances. However, with the substantial expansion of European battery plants and the promotion of Indonesian nickel and cobalt projects, European cobalt salt plants and Indonesian nickel and cobalt smelting may become the new layout of cobalt enterprises in the next decade.

By combing the overseas leading enterprises Glencore, Umicor and Sumitomo Metals, we find that the enterprises with technological R & D advantages have more robust profitability and higher market valuation, and the upstream and downstream integrated enterprises have higher gross profit margin and net profit margin. The growth is the strongest, followed by profit robustness, and the performance elasticity of mining + trade enterprises is the greatest, and the profit stability is poor. Among the domestic A-share companies, Huayou Cobalt is a typical integrated enterprise, while Hanrui Cobalt and Shengtun Mining are still mainly based on mine layout. From the point of view of growth and performance robustness, continue to recommend Huayou Cobalt Industry, followed by Shengtun Mining, Hanrui Cobalt Industry and so on.

Ping an Securities: China's position in the development of global lithium resources will be further improved.

With the strengthening of lithium resources exploration, the global lithium reserves will be 21 million tons of lithium metal equivalent in 2020, an increase of 23.5% over the same period last year, with a larger increase in lithium reserves in Australia and China. Global lithium production is mainly concentrated in Australia, Chile, Argentina and China. Australia, Chile and China are the top three lithium producers in the world in 2020, with a market share of 49%, 22% and 17%, respectively.

The development of lithium mines in China has been strengthened, which has become one of the driving forces for the growth of global lithium production. China's lithium mines, including spodumene, lithium mica and salt lake lithium deposits, basically have no new capacity in 2021, and the supply growth comes from the further release of the original project capacity, with a small increment. According to the projects of China's major lithium mining companies, China's lithium ore supply will increase in 2022, with the main projects including Yongxing material 20,000 tons of lithium mica lithium carbonate and salt lake shares 20,000 tons of salt lake lithium carbonate production capacity. In the aspect of lithium extraction from salt lake, at present, many kinds of technical routes are parallel in China, and the adsorption method is more mature, among which the breakthrough of "continuous off adsorption" technology in Minmetals Salt Lake is worthy of attention, if industrialization is realized smoothly in the future, it will give a strong impetus to the extraction of lithium from salt lakes in China. We believe that with the strengthening of the development of China's lithium resources, China's position in the development of global lithium resources will be further enhanced.

Combined with supply and demand, we believe that the global lithium ore production capacity is less in 2021, the outstanding problem of oversupply in the early stage is alleviated, the prices of lithium ore and lithium salt are relatively strong, and the industry is expected to maintain a tight balance; supply and demand will maintain rapid growth in 2022, there is still uncertainty about the commissioning of some lithium mines, the global supply and demand of lithium ore is basically balanced, the price of lithium becomes stable, and the growth of demand will become the main driving force of the lithium industry. It is suggested to pay attention to Tianqi Lithium Industry and Yahua Group, which are the leading enterprises with strong resource guarantee ability, good customer base and leading scale of lithium salt.

Huajin Securities: rare earth permanent magnet with long-term growth attribute downstream demand is expected to continue

Rare earth permanent magnet has the attribute of long-term growth, and the downstream demand is expected to continue: from the point of view of the downstream terminal demand of rare earth permanent magnet: 1) in the field of wind power: the end of 2022 is the deadline for grid connection of wind power parity grid projects in 2019 and 2020. The return on investment in wind power projects since 2021 is considerable. From January to April, domestic wind power investment totaled 46.8 billion yuan, an increase of 8.0% over the same period last year. The wind power sector has rush installation demand in the short term, which can provide rapid growth in the next 1-2 years, and is expected to remain stable in the future.

2) the field of variable frequency air conditioners: at present, the permeability of domestic variable frequency air conditioners is 26.32%. It is expected that there will be long-term and large room for improvement under the domestic dual-carbon target guidance and the rising price of private electricity.

3) the field of new energy vehicles: according to the China Automobile Association, it is estimated that the growth rate of new energy vehicles in China will reach more than 41% in the next few years, and we estimate that the demand for high-performance NdFeB in the domestic market of new energy vehicles is expected to reach more than 11000 tons in 2025. The demand for NdFeB magnets in other fields such as 3C and industrial robots is also expected to grow in the long run.

We believe that the demand for rare earth permanent magnet terminals is expected to maintain a high boom for a long time. Due to the commissioning of NdFeB magnetic materials, especially high-end NdFeB magnetic materials and the long and difficult certification period, rare earth permanent magnet plates have long-term growth attributes. It is recommended to pay attention to the target: Jinli permanent magnet.

Dongxing Securities: continue to seize the opportunity of long allocation in the huge gold market

Continue to seize the huge differences in the gold market long allocation opportunities. The gold market is still strongly divided, but the recent rise in the dollar index and gold Synchronize means that resistance to gold's return to $1900 an ounce is beginning to weaken.

As we have analyzed before, the gold market is still in the inertia trading stage of solidifying inflation, and the changes in US dollar and interest rate yields are highly negatively related to the trend of gold. However, the current economic situation is that the expected inflation rate has begun to be significantly higher than the real interest rate yield, which means that the inflation premium will begin to be gradually included in the gold price, that is, the strong inverse relationship between gold and the dollar and US bond yields will be broken. and this is gradually confirmed by recent market trends. In addition, given the rising oil-to-gold ratio, a substantial rise in additional pricing factors will lead to a sharp upward correction in gold pricing, which is expected to be sufficiently pessimistic because of concerns about liquidity market hawks.

On the other hand, taking into account the cyclical trading strengthening of gold as a metal supply and demand itself, such as the systematic growth of gold jewelry consumption (China's Q1 gold jewelry consumption increased by 2.12 times, May gold jewelry consumption increased by 31.5%; The consumption of gold eagle coins in the United States reached a 21-year high), the sharp increase in China's gold imports (54 tons of Q1 gold imports, which rose to 178tons in May), as well as the consistent reappearance of gold purchases by emerging central banks around the world (the net purchase of gold by the global central bank in the first four months is 169.6 tons, and the central bank of Russia is expected to increase again), the pricing center of gold will move up systematically. We believe that US dollar gold will return to US $1900 / oz pricing within six months, and we need to seize and cherish the opportunity to allocate bullish assets in the widely divergent gold market.