Zhongtai Securities: the medium-and long-term prosperity of lithium carbonate will not be changed from sodium ion battery to lithium carbonate.

Ningde Times plans to launch sodium-ion batteries around July this year, sparking heated discussion in the market and worrying about the impact on the development of the lithium industry.

Zhongtai Securities Nonferrous team believes that after comparative analysis, compared with lithium-ion batteries, sodium-ion batteries have lower energy density, and future application scenarios may mainly focus on energy storage, low-speed new energy vehicles and small power fields. Lithium-ion battery is still the mainstream technology route of new energy vehicle battery. Assuming that the energy storage demand reaches 90 GWH in 2025, and the permeability of sodium ion battery reaches 30% Mel 80%, the demand for lithium carbonate will be reduced by about 170-45400 tons, while the total demand for lithium carbonate will reach more than 1 million tons. the application of sodium ion battery does not change the medium-and long-term high business cycle of lithium carbonate. (for specific calculations, see the text)

What is a sodium ion battery? In the periodic table of elements, sodium and lithium belong to the main group of alkali metals and have similar physical and chemical properties to lithium. Similar to lithium-ion batteries, charging and discharging depends on the reversible migration of sodium ions between positive and negative electrodes, both of which are composed of intercalated materials that allow sodium ions to be reversibly inserted and detached. The research of sodium ion battery began in the 1970s, but compared with lithium ion battery, the progress is relatively slow. Around 2010, academia began to pay attention to the research and development of sodium ion battery. In 2015, the first generation of sodium ion battery began to enter the process of commercialization.

Key material systems: 1) cathode, layered transition metal oxides, polyanion compounds, Prussian blue analogue (PBA), conversion reaction-based materials and organic materials. Among the above materials, layered transition metal oxides (NaxTMO2), polyanion compounds and Prussian blue analogue (PBA) are the most promising materials at present, and the energy density needs to be further improved. 2) in terms of negative electrodes, the scientific research community has developed four categories: metal oxides (such as Na (Fe,Ti) O4, TiO2, Na2Ti3O7, etc.), organic materials, materials based on conversion and alloying reactions (such as Sb-based, P-based, etc.), and carbon-based materials. At present, cycle life and charge-discharge efficiency still need to be improved, and the cost needs to be further reduced. 3) electrolyte, including water system, organic system and solid state.

Lithium-ion battery will still be the mainstream technology route of power battery for new energy vehicles in the future. Although after the final industrialization, the sodium ion battery may have a certain cost advantage because of the low cost of raw materials, but:

1) in terms of resource abundance, sodium ion crustal abundance ranks sixth, with 2.75% crustal abundance and 0.0065% lithium ion crustal abundance, but the global lithium reserves are as high as 21 million tons (lithium metal, about 100 million tons LCE),). Even if the permeability of lithium new energy vehicles reaches 100%, it can fully meet the global demand for new energy vehicles (assuming that each vehicle carries electricity of 50 kWH, the total annual lithium carbonate consumption is 3.5 million tons).

2) in terms of electrochemical performance, the performance of lithium-ion battery is more excellent, the working voltage is 3.0V-4.5V, the energy density can reach 150-250hm2 kg, and the cycle life is 3000 + times, while the working voltage of sodium ion battery is 2.8V-3.5V. Under the existing material system, the energy density is only 100-150Whamp kg, and the cycle life is about 2000 times +.

To sum up, Sino-Thai Securities believes that the future application scenarios of sodium ion batteries may mainly focus on energy storage, low-speed new energy vehicles and small power, which can not completely replace the application of lithium batteries in new energy vehicles.

In terms of commercialization process, at present, the anode materials used in commercial sodium ion batteries are hard carbon. At present, nearly 20 enterprises at home and abroad have carried out the industrial layout of sodium ion batteries, including British FARADION, American Natron Energy, American Aquion Energy, Japanese Kishida Chemical, Panasonic, Mitsubishi and China's China Science and Technology Sea Sodium, Sodium Innovation Energy, Star Sodium Power and other companies. There are still many problems to be solved in the industrial application of sodium ion batteries, including the stability of electrolyte, the stability of electrode and electrolyte interface, safety problems, related industries and the recyclability of waste batteries.

Sodium-ion battery is mainly a supplement to the application scenario of lithium-ion battery, which has little effect on the demand of lithium carbonate. According to GGII, 's global energy storage battery shipments of 18.8 GW in 2019, assuming that 2019-2025CAGR is 30%, that is, energy storage battery shipments will reach 90.74 GW in 2025, and assuming that the sodium ion battery permeability reaches 30% GW, the demand for lithium carbonate will be reduced by about 170-45400 tons. Under the assumption that global sales of new energy vehicles will reach 15 million in 2025, the demand for lithium carbonate will reach the order of 1 million tons.

Risk hints: the risk of sales of new energy vehicles falling short of expectations, the risk of sodium ion battery progress exceeding expectations, the risk of industrial policy fluctuation, and the measurement of industry supply and demand based on certain assumptions, there is a risk that it is less than expected, and the public data used in the research report may lag behind or not update in a timely manner, and so on.