"rising factors
1. Reverse repurchase continues to be "suspended" this month. The third quarter reserve reduction may be expected.
So far, the central bank has continued to "shut down" reverse repurchase since July, and it has also suspended reverse repurchase for 10 consecutive working days since June 29. Wang Qing, chief macro analyst at Oriental Jincheng, believes that as far as the current liquidity situation is concerned, the market capital interest rate has returned to the policy rate, which means that the future DR007 further upward space is limited. The next three months will be the peak of government bond issuance. If funds are further tightened, the central bank is likely to restart reverse repurchase "replenishment", and does not rule out the possibility of another reserve cut in the third quarter, which will also enhance the lending capacity of banks.
2. Automobile production and sales hit an all-time high in June in the same month.
The latest statistics from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers show that automobile production and sales continued to pick up in June, with production and sales of 2.325 million and 2.3 million respectively, an increase of 6.3% and 4.8% respectively over the previous month, and an increase of 22.5% and 11.6% respectively over the same month last year. Production and sales reached an all-time high in the same month. In the first half of this year, China's automobile production and sales completed 10.112 million and 10.257 million respectively, down 16.8% and 16.9% respectively from the same period last year, which was 7.3% and 5.7% lower than that from January to May, respectively, which was better than expected.
Downside factor
1. The Ministry of Water Resources has upgraded the emergency response of flood and drought prevention to level II.
According to the Ministry of Water Resources, 212 rivers have been flooded since July 4, of which 72 rivers are over-insured and 19 have exceeded historical records. Taihu Lake exceeded the warning water level for 15 days. In response, the Ministry of Water Resources upgraded the emergency response to flood and drought prevention to level II.
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