[summary of SMM Morning meeting] lead in Shanghai falls down high and is afraid of high and careful mining in the lower reaches.

Summary of lead Morning meeting:

Futures market:

Last Friday, Lun lead opened at US $1774.5 per tonne. During the Asian session, Lun lead shot up and fell back, and its center of gravity gradually shifted down, reaching a low of US $1763.5 per tonne. After entering the European and American period, Lun lead rebounded, reaching a high of US $1788 per tonne. It finally closed at US $1785 / tonne, an increase of 0.71 per cent.

Last Friday, Shanghai lead opened at 14705 yuan. At the beginning of trading, Shanghai lead fell rapidly, reaching a low of 14565 yuan / ton, and then basically fluctuated slightly to 14585 yuan / ton, down 0.71% (bearish).

Spot fundamentals:

Last week, some refineries in Hunan began to be overhauled, affecting part of the output release, but due to the high spot price and poor market trading, the refinery bulk order turned into a discount quotation. As of last Friday, the market bulk order had an average price discount of 100 yuan / ton to flat water for SMM1# lead. Trade market, the market supply is abundant, although there is no follow-up import lead inflow, but it is still difficult to close a deal with imported lead. As of last Friday, domestic lead ordinary brand lead on 2007 contract discount 30m / ton; recycled lead market, with higher prices, corporate profits repair, as of last Friday, including tax recycled lead mainstream quotations on the SMM1# lead average price discount 250mu 350 yuan / ton factory; On the consumer side, from the perspective of market feedback, consumption is still in the doldrums, and the willingness to purchase at high prices downstream is very cautious (bearish).

As of last Friday, the total inventory of SMM lead ingots in the five places reached 33800 tons, an increase of 4100 tons over the previous period.

Lead price forecast today:

Lun lead continues to have a strong trend, with a high market risk appetite and is expected to continue to rise in the short term; the high level of lead in Shanghai is mainly suppressed by inventory accumulation, and the short-term lead price continues to be weak.

It is expected that today's SMM1# lead price will fall by 75 RMB125 / ton.