SMM Evening Comments (Jun 23): SHFE base metals mixed as investors weighed reopening hopes against COVID-19 resurgence fears

SHANGHAI, Jun 23 (SMM) – SHFE nonferrous metals closed mixed on Tuesday, as investors continued to weigh hopes of economic re-openings against signs that coronavirus infections are rising in some parts of the world.

Copper advanced 0.7%, aluminium rose 0.4% and tin gained 0.3%, while lead fell 0.6%, zinc shed 0.7% and nickel dropped 1.2%.

On the LME, the nonferrous complex, except for copper, were lower across the board as of 18:06 Beijing time.

Global markets had a turbulent session on the back of surprise comments from White House trade adviser Peter Navarro saying a hard-won US-China trade deal was “over.” Jangled nerves were soothed after Navarro clarified that the deal is not over and US President Donald Trump tweeted that the China trade deal was fully intact.

Data published Tuesday showed that the downturn in the eurozone continued to recover in June, giving the latest indication of the region’s economic health as it emerges from the coronavirus pandemic.

Flash purchasing managers’ index (PMI) data—measuring activity in both the services and manufacturing sector in the eurozone—came in at 47.5 in June, up from a final reading of 31.9 in May. The 50-point mark separates contraction from expansion.

Copper: The most-traded SHFE August contract rose after slipping to a session-low of 47,330 yuan/mt in early morning trade, and finished the day 0.65% firmer at 47,850. It is likely to test the 48,000 mark tonight.

Copper prices remained supported by uncertainty surrounding supply from mines in South America where the coronavirus situation is severe.

Aluminium: The most-liquid SHFE contract came off from session highs, but remained in positive territory. It finished the day 0.4% higher at 13,655 yuan/mt.  

Zinc: The load-up of short positions and liquidation of long positions pulled the most-active SHFE August contract off the 17,000 level to a session-low of 16,730 yuan/mt, before the contract recovered some ground to end down 0.71% at 16,790. The contract is unlikely to hold onto the five-day moving average tonight, given losses in its LME counterpart. Expectations of weaker consumption and concerns over the state of US-China trade deal weighed on market sentiment.

Nickel: The most-traded SHFE August contract extended overnight losses to a one-week trough of 101,240 yuan/mt, before clawing back some losses to close down 1.18% at 101,550. It is expected to remain weak and hover at 101,000-102,500 before the Dragon Boat Festival holiday begins on Thursday, in anticipation of pre-holiday caution among investors.

Lead: The most-active SHFE August contract extended overnight decline to a session-low of 14,400 yuan/mt, before recouping some losses to end down 0.62% at 14,455. Today’s loss sent the contract below the five-day moving average. The contract is unlikely to rebound substantially tonight, if its LME counterpart extends its losses.

Tin: The most-liquid SHFE August contract strengthened during the daytime session, ending up 0.34% at 138,260 yuan/mt.