[2019.10.30 minutes of Zinc Internal Morning meeting] interest rate cut is expected to strengthen the rise and decline of the spot market again

SMM October 30 Zinc Morning meeting:

Zinc Morning meeting: the US consumer confidence index fell to 125.9 in October, the third consecutive month of decline, as the market worried about business conditions and employment prospects, but remained in line with the continued growth in consumer spending. The US index of completed homes rose 1.5 per cent to 108.7 in September from the previous month, the highest level since December 2017, and low interest rates provided some support for the struggling housing market. The British Prime Minister has won many defeats in Parliament, and his brief bill to hold a general election on December 12 passed the House of Commons by a vote of 438 to 20. The bill has now been submitted to the House of Lords. Britain's first Christmas election since 1923 will be highly unpredictable, and the results will be announced in the early hours of Friday the 13th. If no political party wins by a landslide, the British retreat stalemate will continue.

Fundamentals: yesterday's spot review: rising water failed to stick to the market procurement is still OK

Shanghai: in the first trading period, the morning holder quotes 70 yuan / ton to the 1911 contract, the market mainstream quotation to the SMM net average price is flat, but the transaction is few, the spot rising water is reduced to 1911 liters 60 yuan / ton, some cardholders to the SMM net average price discount 5-10 yuan / ton quotation; In the second trading session, zinc prices continued to be strong. At the beginning of the session, the holder further lowered the price of rising water to 50 yuan / ton for the 1911 contract, and the enthusiasm of the market for receiving goods was enhanced, which led to the stabilization of spot rising and falling water, and finally reported 60 yuan / ton to the 1911 contract. Zinc prices continue to be strong, SMM0# zinc prices rose 400 yuan / ton in two days, the downstream fear of high cautious mining, mostly wait-and-see, the trade market is more worried about rising water further downward, spot high water mining buy downturn, but in the spot water 50 yuan / ton procurement enthusiasm can be, in the afternoon to further pay attention to Shanghai spot water changes.

Guangdong: refinery shipments are normal, the market supply circulation is more abundant. In the morning, the quotation of the cardholder focused on the discount of 30 yuan / ton to the 12 contract, but the consignee was willing to receive the goods at the discount of 40 yuan / ton on the 12 contract, the transaction was more divided, and the overall transaction situation was slightly deadlocked. Entering the second trading period, the market quotation is concentrated in the discount of 40 yuan / ton to the 12 contract, the superposition disk surface goes down rapidly, the market transaction is better, most of them are traders, and the willingness to buy downstream is relatively limited. The overall transaction was basically flat compared with yesterday.

Tianjin: refinery shipments are normal today. In the market, the circulation of goods still tends to be loose. The quotation of the high-priced brand source is concentrated in the vicinity of 20-80 yuan / ton to the 11 contract, and the quotation for the ordinary brand source is about 0-50 yuan / ton to the 11-liter water. Today, the disk high shock, the downstream buy little, the holder saw the trend to take the initiative to lower the rising water, the supply of high-priced brands from the beginning of the 11 contract price of 80 yuan / ton gradually reduced to 20 yuan / ton, ordinary brands also from the beginning of the 11 contract price of about 50 yuan / ton down to flat water. However, the disk high shock hit the downstream enthusiasm for taking goods, even if rising water down is also difficult to boost the willingness to buy, on the whole, today's transaction is worse than yesterday.

Zinc price: overnight zinc recorded five Lianyang, the lower EMA neatly upward to give Len zinc action energy, KDJ index showed a parallel narrowing trend, indicating that the upward slope of LME zinc may have slowed down, in addition, zinc stocks recorded a continuous decline, refreshing new lows also support zinc prices. Yesterday's LME zinc 0-3 liter discount was $43 a tonne. Although the Shanghai zinc closed negative overnight, but the support of the nine thousand points below is strong, the KDJ index shows an upward trend, showing that Shanghai zinc temporary storage stop falling kinetic energy, superimposed external trend strong boost, Shanghai zinc within a day or partial concussion finishing.

Today is expected: Lun zinc or range is expected to run at 2510-2560 US dollars / ton, Shanghai zinc main force 1912 contract or run at 18800-19300 yuan / ton. Zinc made in China fell by 20 yuan / ton

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