[2019.7.30 Zinc Internal Morning meeting] Sino-US trade negotiations are about to resume zinc prices return to rise trend is still strong

On the 30th of SMM7,

Zinc Morning meeting: macro: Trump said on the eve of the Fed's policy meeting that "a small cut in interest rates is not enough." The Bank of Japan is expected to stand still today, or wait and see what the Fed does before it moves. The risk of Britain leaving the European Union without an agreement intensified, Prime Minister Johnson issued an ultimatum on the Brexit negotiations, sterling and British bond yields plummeted. U. S. and Chinese officials began negotiations in Shanghai today. Xinhua English editorial said that the good resumption of Sino-US economic and trade negotiations is not an easy task, and it is hoped that the two sides will move in the opposite direction, and sincerity is still the key to Sino-US consultations.

Fundamentals: yesterday's spot review:

Shanghai: near the end of the month, traders deal more and less, and occasionally the average price of long orders fluctuates. In the morning market, traders offered a tentative quotation of 80 yuan per ton for the current month, while the latter part of the quotation went down to 70 yuan per ton for the month, and the market transaction was still very few. There has been a slight increase in ticket transactions next month, mainly for the month's rise of 60 yuan per ton. Into the second trading period, trading sentiment further diluted, the disk upstream after the downstream inquiry is few. Today's transaction was further worse than last Friday.

Guangdong: the disk goes up, the smelter ships actively, the market supply circulation is more abundant, the morning holder quotation is concentrated in the average price-10 yuan / ton, but the market transaction does not appear. Entering the second trading period, the holder concentrated on the discount of 50 yuan to 40 yuan per ton for the 09 contract, but the market rose again, and the willingness to pick up the goods downstream obviously dimmed. On the whole, the transaction in today's Guangdong market is significantly worse than that of yesterday.

Tianjin: disk upward, the market supply circulation is more abundant, the morning holder quotation concentrated in the 08 contract water 40 110 yuan / ton, but the disk surface continues to pull up, the downstream mostly to wait and see and inquire the price primarily, the market does not have the transaction, the follow-up holder lowers the water to the 08 contract liter water 40 80 yuan / ton nearby, the market has the small transaction, the transaction mainly focuses on the low price brand goods source. Overall, today's rally and continue to pull up, the willingness to wait and see downstream is stronger, the willingness to receive goods is not good, the overall transaction situation is lighter than last Friday.

Zinc price: overnight zinc recorded two Lianyang, the overall operation near the middle rail of Brin Road, overseas market contango structure to back, superimposed LME zinc inventory recorded a decline, overseas supply may have a tight trend, but the above 40-day EMA suppression is strong, bulls confidence is still to be considered. Overnight Shanghai zinc harvest two Lianyang, the overall operation near the 40-day moving average, KDJ index turn upward shows that Shanghai zinc upward trend, but 40-day average suppression is strong, superimposed market accumulation is still strong, Shanghai zinc upward trend is still to be considered.

Forecast today: expected to run in the range of 2430-2480 US dollars / ton, Shanghai Zinc main 1909 contract or operation in the vicinity of 19300-19800 yuan / ton. Material 0 # domestic rose 160.