[2019.07.26 minutes of zinc internal morning meeting]

SMM7 26 June news:

Zinc Morning meeting: macro: the ECB decided to keep interest rates unchanged and opened up room for future interest rate cuts or even a resumption of quantitative easing, but Draghi did not send a clear easing signal at a press conference to push for a rebound in the euro. Britain's new Prime Minister Johnson's request to scrap the Irish backup plan has been rejected by the European Union. It is reported that China has approved the purchase of corn, cotton, pork and other goods from the United States and exempted from punitive tariffs. The United States will release second-quarter GDP data on Friday, which is expected to slow to its slowest pace since Trump's presidency.

Fundamentals: yesterday's spot review:

Shanghai: as the end of the month, the market willingness to receive goods is poor, coupled with the weak demand downstream, spot water from a small number of 80 down to the mainstream rise of about 70, next month ticket prices gradually increased. Transactions are mainly concentrated in the vicinity of 70, but also a small number of 60 transactions. Entering the second trading period, the market sales further increased, the quotation continued to try down to around 60-70, Shuangyan due to the cold reception of goods downstream is basically the same as the ordinary. The overall transaction of the market is contributed by traders, and the buying downstream is weak.

Guangdong: the refinery shipment is normal, the market supply circulation is more abundant. The early quotation of the holder focused on the discount of 40 yuan / ton to the 09 contract, but the market transaction atmosphere was mediocre. Some subsequent holders tried to reduce the discount of 10 yuan / ton, and reported that the discount to the 09 contract was about 50 yuan / ton. Some traders contributed mainly to a small amount of trading, and there was little willingness to receive the goods downstream. Overall, today's Guangdong market transactions are poor, the downstream is basically wait-and-see, superimposed terminal orders continue to change, some enterprises stop production and wait-and-see, there is no demand for goods. Overall, the trading situation in Guangdong today is again worse than that of yesterday.

Tianjin: the refinery shipment is normal, the market supply is abundant, the holder's early quotation is concentrated in the 08 contract rising water 50 100 yuan / ton, but the disk surface price has not changed obviously yesterday, the downstream receiving intention is still not strong, the follow-up some holders take the lead in lowering the rising water 20 yuan / ton, the market quotation is concentrated in the 08 contract rising water 30 80 yuan / ton or so, the market still continues the pre-price non-market state. Downstream willingness to pick up goods again poor, the decline in market activity is more significant, the overall transaction situation is still not improved yesterday, continued to be insipid.

Zinc price: overnight zinc received a bald small negative line, the upper 40-day EMA suppression is still strong, the decline of LME zinc inventory within the day is not as expected, the zinc or bias interval finishing, the day action can still be considered. Overnight Shanghai zinc recorded a negative line, as a whole jumped off the middle track of Bolin Road, Shanghai zinc returned to the 10-day EMA platform finishing operation, market consumption off-season effect is significant, domestic social inventory increase is expected to remain, Shanghai zinc or weak finishing operation within a day.

Forecast today: expected to run in the range of 2400-2450 US dollars / ton, Shanghai Zinc main 1909 contract or run in the vicinity of 19000-19500 yuan / ton. Material 0 # domestic zinc fell by 100