Macro Roundup (May 23)

SHANGHAI, May 23 (SMM) – This is a roundup of global macroeconomic news last night and what is expected today.

Last night

The US dollar index firmed near a one-month peak, hovering around 98, after minutes from the May Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting showed officials agreed that their current patient approach to setting monetary policy could remain in place "for some time."

Base metals, except for SHFE lead, declined across the board. SHFE copper lost 1.12%, zinc slid 0.97%, aluminium fell 0.49%, nickel dipped 0.43%, and tin dropped 0.28%. LME zinc slipped 1.49%, copper went down 1.24%, nickel decreased 0.99%, aluminium dropped 0.7%, tin lost 0.61%, and lead ended 0.22% lower. 

In minutes of the April 30-May 1 discussion released Wednesday, Fed officials believed the central bank could remain “patient” in deciding when to adjust interest rates, though some thought future rate hikes might still be needed.

Fed officials noted that prospects for the US and global economy had been improving, while inflation had fallen farther below the Fed’s 2% target. 

The Fed's last meeting came before US President Donald Trump's administration increased tariffs on Chinese goods. "Clearly with the flare-up in trade tension between the US and China since the meeting, that brought up the downside risk for growth. The minutes seem a bit stale at this point," said Matthew Luzzetti, chief US economist at Deutsche Bank.

New York Fed President John Williams said at a press briefing on Wednesday that there is not currently a strong argument for changing rates, including as a response to low inflation readings that may due to temporary factors.

"We need to make sure that we continue with a strong expansion, the strong economy, in a way that leads to inflation moving back to our symmetric 2% goal," Williams said in response to a question on whether a rate cut could help support inflation.

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday reported that US crude supplies rose by 4.74 million barrels for the week ended May 17. This compared with an expected decline of 599,000 barrels. The EIA data also revealed that gasoline inventories climbed by 3.7 million barrels, while distillate stockpiles edged up by 800,000 barrels last week.

Day ahead

Germany will release data on its gross domestic product for the first quarter and its Ifo business climate index for May. Data on the Markit manufacturing (purchasing managers' index) PMI for the eurozone and the US in May, and the US weekly unemployment claims are also due today.