[review of SMM Copper concentrate] Escondida negotiations continue to deteriorate TC remains stable

SMM8: this week, the copper concentrate market was not disturbed by much strike news, and TC was still at a high level. as of Friday, the spot TC of SMM copper concentrate was at 85 US dollars / ton, and RC was at 8.5 ≤ 9.0 cents / pound. It's up $0.50 a tonne, 0.05 cents a pound from last week.

In August, the market for imported copper concentrate was still relatively light, and the supply of goods was relatively abundant in the third quarter. although traders had supplies, they were unwilling to raise the TC, smelter's purchase level in the face of a strike. The huge fluctuations in the exchange rate have also made it difficult for smelters to procure, but it is understood that the western smelters will carry out winter storage at a later stage and the demand for raw materials will increase. At present, the mainstream TC range of clean ore remains at 86 ~ 90 US dollars / ton, and there is a slight pressure to flush 90%.

As previously expected, Escondida negotiations are gradually approaching the strike. according to SMM's latest understanding, after 84 per cent of union miners rejected BHP's final plan, BHP announced that it would make an adjusted offer by Aug. 6. If it is still unable to pass, there will be a strike, and the BHP is expected to intervene with the government for a period of five days. SMM believes that the current situation has reached the brink of a strike, the degree of concession on the part of the trade union is limited, the current copper price has dropped significantly from last year's high, and after the BHP has repeatedly rejected its offer, it is also less likely that it will significantly improve its treatment. The strike is risky, but the duration is likely to be limited. (SMM Sun Ziyang)