Macro Roundup (Oct 12)

SHANGHAI, Oct 12 (SMM) – This is a roundup of global macroeconomic news last night and what is expected today.

Last night

The dollar fell to low in two weeks on Thursday against a basket of currencies as traders pared greenback holdings on lower US Treasury yields and further losses on Wall Street.

A weaker-than-forecast rise in US consumer prices in September also reduced bets for a faster pace of interest rate increases by the Federal Reserve, further eroding the dollar's appeal.

The euro climbed to a week-high against the dollar as minutes of the European Central Bank's policy meeting last month suggested that policy-makers have not abandoned their plan to end the ECB's 2.6 trillion-euro bond-purchase programme this year.

Most LME base metals rebounded into positive territory on Thursday. Lead led gains with an increase more than 4%. Tin jumped 1%, copper rose close 0.9%, zinc edged up 0.1%, nickel nudged up 0.04% while aluminium lost 0.61%.

SHFE base metals ended mixed overnight. Lead increased over 1%, copper advanced about 0.6%, tin gained close to 0.5% while zinc and nickel dipped some 0.1% and aluminium slid some 0.3%.

US consumer prices rose less than expected in September, held back by a slower increase in rent and falling energy prices, as underlying inflation pressures appeared to cool.

The consumer price index (CPI) increased 0.1% last month after rising 0.2% in August. In the 12 months through September, the CPI increased 2.3%, slowing from August's 2.7% advance.

Excluding the volatile food and energy components, the CPI edged up 0.1% for the second straight month. In the 12 months through September, the core CPI increased 2.2%. Economists had forecast both overall and core CPI climbing 0.2% in September.

The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits unexpectedly rose last week but remained near a 49-year low, and the increase appeared unlikely to refuted the view that the US labour market remains strong.

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits increased 7,000 to a seasonally adjusted 214,000 for the week ended October 6, the Labor Department said on Thursday. Economists had forecast claims slipping to 206,000, from 207,000 a week earlier.

The Labor Department said that Hurricane Florence took a toll on claims for North and South Carolina.

US crude inventories rose close to 6 million barrels last week, marking the third consecutive weekly increase, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said, more than double analysts' expectations of a 2.6 million-barrels increase. The build was in part due to a 2.4 million-barrel increase in stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma, delivery hub for US crude futures.

Refinery crude runs fell by 352,000 barrels per day as utilisation rates dropped 1.6 percentage points, EIA data showed.

Day ahead

Some data to monitor today include Germany’s consumer prices in September, and US import prices in September and consumer confidence in October.