Macro Roundup (Apr 16)

SHANGHAI, Apr 16 (SMM) – This is a roundup of global macroeconomic news last weekend and what is expected today.

Last weekend

Despite airstrikes in Syria by the US, UK and France, the US dollar index edged up slightly and closed at 89.78 on Friday April 13 as trade tension eased and the Federal Reserve Board’s March meeting took a aggressive stance.

Most base metals rose but saw smaller increases. SHFE lead fell close to 1%, copper dipped while aluminium, zinc, tin and nickel inched up slightly. LME lead dropped over 1%. LME aluminium edged down but hit a six-year high at one point on worries of supply shortages due to US sanctions on Rusal.

China saw a trade deficit of $4.98 billion yuan in March, the first monthly deficit since February 2017, as imports grew 14.4% on the year while exports fell 2.7%, marking the first drop since February 2017.

China’s M2 money supply in March grew 8.2% from a year earlier, a new low since December 2017. The M2 is a broad measure of money supply that includes cash in circulation and all deposits. The country’s new loans in March reached 1.12 trillion yuan, more than the 839.3 billion yuan registered in February. Total social financing rose to 1.33 trillion in March, from 1.17 trillion yuan in February.

The eurozone’s trade surplus stood at 21 billion euro in March after seasonal adjustment.

The consumer sentiment index by the University of Michigan fell to 97.8 in April’s preliminary reading.

The number of active US rigs rose by 5 units to 1,008 units in total over the week ended April 13, with natural gas rigs down 2 units to 192 units and oil rigs up 7 units to 815 units, according to data from Baker Hughes.

The US crude oil futures rose for five consecutive trading days and hit a high of $67.76/barrel at one point, the highest since December 5, 2014.

Day ahead

The US retail sales data in March and the situation in Syria are two key things to watch today.

The US dollar index is expected to hover at the current level, while base metals are likely to see mixed trading in the short term.

The monthly rate of the US retail sales in March is expected at 0.3%, higher than the previous -0.1%; its core figure is estimated at 0.2, flat from the previous one.

However, the influence of the US retail sales data is seen declining as the market anticipates three interest rate hikes by the Fed.

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