Key Macroeconomic Indicators for Base Metal Prices (2017-8-17)

SHANGHAI, Aug. 17 (SMM) –Market will eye UK July retail sales, euro zone’s July CPI and June trade data, as well as US initial jobless claims for last week and industrial output for July today. 

Minutes of the US Fed’s July meeting showed many officials expect inflation to be lower than 2% for a longer time than expected. The sent the US dollar index down last night. 

UK’s CPI rose 2.6% YoY in July, below forecast, but higher than 2% target. Due to impact from Brexit, UK’s CPI has been staying at highs. High inflation pushed prices up. Wage growth was not strong and disposable family income fell. So, monthly rate of seasonally adjusted retail sales may drop to 0.2%. 

According to preliminary data, euro zone’s CPI rose 1.3% YoY in July, the highest in four years. The final figure may be the same as preliminary data. Economic recovery and low jobless rate may prompt the ECB to tighten monetary policy this autumn. 
Euro zone’s seasonally adjusted trade surplus may expand from EUR 19.7 billion to EUR 20.3 billion in June. The euro will get a boost if the trade surplus expanded as expected.    

US initial jobless claims may drop to 240,000 in the week ending August 12. Initial jobless claims have been at below 300,000 for 127 weeks in a row. If the figure drops further, expectations will grow for the US Fed to raise interest rate.

Based on recent US economic data, monthly rate of US retail sales may grow more than expected in July. Rising wages and stable labor market suggest US economy is on the recovery. So, monthly rate of US industrial output may rise further in July.  

See SMM price forecast, please click: SMM Price Outlook for Base Metals on SHFE (Aug. 17, 2017)