Key Macroeconomic Indicators for Base Metal Prices (2017-7-20)

SHANGHAI, Jul. 20 (SMM) – UK’s seasonally adjusted retail sales in June, European Central Bank’s (ECB) July interest rate decision, the number of US initial jobless claims last week and eurozone CCI in July are due for release today. The US dollar stopped falling and will stay weak unless there are any apparent positive news. NYMEX oil reached the highest over the past 1.5 months now that EIA crude oil inventories fell more than expected. Base metals will hover at lows, and price volatility is expected today.

UK’s seasonally adjusted retail sales in June may rise 0.4%. UK’s annualized June CPI slid. If the country’s retail sales in June improve, it means UK’s economy picked up, which will boost the pound.

The ECB will hold its July policy meeting today and is expected to leave monetary policy untouched.

United Overseas Bank said political risk in Europe is fading, and local economy is recovering. So market expectations grew that the ECB may remove stimulus measures. But notably, the ECB appeals to maintain accommodative monetary policy, and any expectations of a quit of QE is too early. It may be at least one year until the bank hike interest rate, which may be driven by technical factor.

The number of US initial jobless claims last week is expected to fall slightly and stay low. This means US labor market is still tightening, and is close to full employment.

Eurozone July CCI may rise slightly, a reflection of optimism toward eurozone economy in July.