SMM Copper Demand Surprise Index: China Copper Demand to Fall in May 2017

SHANGHAI, May 16 (SMM) – The final SMM Copper Demand Surprise Index (SMMCDSI) was -32.59 in March, below preliminary reading of -30.65, and the final index was -24.53 in April, better than preliminary data of -43.09. SMM expects the index to come in at -29.53 in May as downstream demand will be negatively affected by the upcoming off-demand season.

SMM survey finds that the average operation rate at domestic copper processing enterprises was 74.47 per cent in April, up 2.41 per cent on a monthly basis, and flat with the level seen a year ago.

In April, large domestic copper tube/pipe producers ran at full rates thanks to robust demand from home appliance sector, and production at copper plate/strip, sheet and foil producers held stable, according to SMM survey. Utilization rates at copper rod producers grew on a monthly basis in April, but remained below the level seen in past years, and producers in the survey sample expressed pessimism over this year’s operation rate.

Production at copper rod producers is estimated to fall in May, and this will drag down overall utilization rates at domestic copper processing enterprises to fall to 74.03 per cent in May, SMM foresees. (For details, please see SMM Copper Monthly Report)

The SMM Copper Demand Surprise Index (SMMCDSI) is an objective and quantitative method of evaluation of copper demand in China, and the index is issued around 15 every month, and the issuing date will likely be advanced for business development in the future.

The SMMCDSI index defines the spread between published data of refined copper cathode and scrap copper supply in China, and SMM surveyed and estimated data of domestic copper downstream producers. After normalization, the spread is called the Surprise. When the reading is in positive territory, it indicates that copper demand is above market expectation, and when the reading is above 50, it indicates a high chance for copper futures prices to rise; when the reading is in negative territory, it indicates that copper demand is below market expectation, and when the reading is below -50, it indicates a high chance for copper futures prices to fall. 

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