August 2016 Copper Price Forecast: China Demand Wanes

by Kyle Fitzsimmons on AUGUST 10, 2016

Style:Market Analysis

Category:Macroeconomics, Manufacturing, Metal Prices, Metal Pricing,Sourcing Strategies

Copper continues to struggle as demand for the metal wanes, most notably in its top consumer market, China.

BMI Research analysts noted that copper inventories indicate a significant lack of demand in general, but a lack of demand coming from China makes it especially troubling considering the Far East Nation is the world’s largest importer of the metal.

“While the corresponding decline in Shanghai inventories largely offset the jump in(London Metal Exchange prices), the shift suggests that China’s strong H1 2016 economic data does not in fact reflect improving demand growth,” BMI Research stated, according to a report from Business Insider.

The note added: “We expect China’s refined copper imports to decelerate over the remainder of the year, and will remain wary of any other rapid movements in inventories.”

Copper MMI gains just a single point

Our own Raul de Frutos noted that copper on the LME continues to trade up and down with the metal struggling near $5,000 for the ninth straight month. Citing the International Copper Study Group, de Frutos stated that refined copper balance for Q1 2016 reveals a production deficit of around 119,000 metric tons (seasonally adjusted to 129,000 mt.) compared to a production surplus of around 13,000 mt. (seasonally adjusted to 12,000 mt.) for the same time frame in 2015.

You can find a more in-depth copper price forecast and outlook in our brand new Monthly Metal Buying Outlook report. Check it out to receive short- and long-term buying strategies with specific price thresholds.