SHANGHAI, Aug. 9 (SMM) – SMM’s survey of major Chinese tin smelters over their opinions on this week’s price outlook shows the following results.
About 50% of them expect spot tin in Shanghai to rise to RMB 122,000-124,000/mt, citing falling supply from smelter closures due to environmental protection checks as main reason. Spot prices will rise slower than SHFE and LME tin, though, due to soft demand. LME tin stocks have fallen to multi-month lows, and this will push LME tin up to USD 18,250-18,500/mt. SHFE 1609 tin will advance to RMB 122,000-125,000/mt.
Another 35% expect spot tin in Shanghai to stay at highs of RMB 120,000-123,000/mt on the grounds that tightening supply and weak demand will keep prices around current levels. A strong US dollar will leave LME tin struggling around USD 18,200/mt, with trading range at USD 18,000-18,300/mt. SHFE 1609 tin will continue trading in recent range of RMB 119,000-122,000/mt
The rest 15% are bearish that spot tin in Shanghai will fall back to RMB 118,000-120,000/mt, citing poor demand as main reason. Poor Chinese economic data and a strong US dollar will drag LME tin down to below USD 17,900/mt. SHFE 1609 tin will probably fall below RMB 118,000/mt