SMM Lead Market Morning Review (2015-4-29)

SHANGHAI, Apr. 29 (SMM) – LME lead rolled back its early gains to close at USD 2,083/mt Tuesday night, down USD 21/mt, off 1%. Trading volumes dropped 74 to 3,041 lots and positions fell 579 to 148,000. LME lead inventories decreased 2,475 mt to 476,250 mt.

LME lead increased totaling USD 260/mt in April, up 14.3%, but upwards resistance has been formed and whether LME lead will rise further depends on China’s monetary policies. LME lead waits for guide after most good news were absorbed. Spot lead is expected to remain strong toady. But many lead smelters plan to resume operation recently and inventories are expected to be abundant in middle May.

News from China was the focus Tuesday. China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) reported risk warning. Ma Jun, chief economist of PBOC research institute, denied reported plans for QE program, saying the PBOC had enough policy tools and did not need to buy up local government bonds. Other news came that the PBOC may expand PSL and allow more banks to gain PSL to support affordable housing construction, local government debt replacement and the”One Belt One Road” program.

US January seasonally adjusted house sales of 20 big cities increased 0.93%, higher than the expected 0.7%. But US April Conference Board CCI was 95.2, hitting a 4-month low and US April manufacturing index from Richmond Fed was -3, lower than the expected -2.

Tsipras, Greek Prime Minister, Greece is expected to reach agreement with its international creditors on May 9th, otherwise, a referendum is expected.

US stocks diverged and European stocks all dropped. US dollar index fell 0.67% while US crude oil prices climbed 0.12%. LME base metals diverged.

LME lead is expected to move at USD 2,060-2090/mt. The most active SHFE 1506 lead is expected to hover between RMB 13,640-13,740/mt while spot lead between RMB 13,700-13,800/mt.