[SMM Analysis] Driven by Geopolitical Issues, Steel Billet Exports Up 66% MoM in March

Published: Apr 23, 2026 13:29

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China's steel billet exports performed strongly in Q1 2026, showing a continuous upward trend. According to data from the General Administration of Customs, China's steel billet exports in March 2026 reached 1.53 million mt, up 66.0% MoM and up 47.9% YoY, hitting a record high for a single month in the same period in recent years. The reasons were twofold. On one hand, domestic construction steel demand remained lukewarm after Chinese New Year, with the traditional "Golden March and Silver April" peak season failing to materialize significantly, and inventory in many regions staying at elevated levels for an extended period, making steel billet exports an effective way to relieve domestic sales pressure. On the other hand, geopolitical issues erupted suddenly, with passage through the Strait of Hormuz restricted and Middle Eastern steel exports disrupted. It was learned that Southeast Asia imported approximately 2.31 million mt of steel from the Middle East in 2025, of which up to 97% were semi-finished steel billet products. Southeast Asian countries that traditionally relied on exports from Iran and other Middle Eastern sources shifted their procurement center toward China and India, while China's steel billet export prices were more competitive compared to those of Indonesia and India. According to data from the General Administration of Customs, China's total steel billet exports from January to March 2026 reached 3.3 million mt, up 28.5% YoY.

By product category, China's steel billet exports were dominated by regular square billets, with March exports of 1.19 million mt, up 43.4% MoM and up 38.4% YoY, accounting for 77.8% of the nation's total steel billet exports. Regular steel billet exports from January to March totaled 2.709 million mt, up 16.4% YoY. Slab exports in March reached 330,000 mt, up 312.5% MoM and up 106.3% YoY, accounting for 21% of the nation's total steel billet exports. Slab exports from January to March totaled 562,000 mt, up 166.9% YoY.

According to an SMM survey, steel billet orders shifted toward China amid the impact of the international situation. Since March, domestic long steel product order volumes have remained at elevated levels for an extended period. Currently, steel mills have taken orders with shipping schedules already booked through June to August. Steel billet exports in Q2 are expected to hit a record high. In addition, slab export prices had a clear competitive advantage. With steel mills having taken orders in large volumes earlier, export shipping schedules were also booked through June, and slab exports in Q2 are expected to potentially double.

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM‘s internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

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