[SMM Analysis] March 2026 NCM Exports Reach All-Time High

In March 2026, China's ternary cathode material exports (NCM and NCA combined) reached 21,900 metric tons, representing a 103% MoM increase and a 163% YoY increase. Among these, NCM exports accounted for 20,900 metric tons, or 96% of the total.

By destination, South Korea remained the largest importer of NCM, with March imports reaching 8,500 metric tons. Poland, Malaysia, and Japan ranked second, third, and fourth, with imports of 3,720 metric tons, 2,409 metric tons, and 2,363 metric tons, respectively. Additionally, Germany recorded a significant year-on-year increase in import volumes.

March's domestic ternary cathode material exports reached an all-time high, primarily driven by the impending cancellation of China's 13% VAT rebate on ternary cathode material exports, effective April 1. Four major battery cell manufacturers from Japan and South Korea placed orders well in advance, boosting demand not only at their domestic plants but also at their battery production bases in Southeast Asia and Europe. Apart from the impact of the tax rebate policy, Europe's local EV subsidy policies also contributed to strong demand growth, further increasing China's ternary cathode material exports. Among European countries, the Nordic region leads by a wide margin in EV penetration, supported by the most generous subsidy programs, while the UK, France, and Germany continue to serve as key pillars of NEV sales volume. In contrast, U.S. new energy vehicle sales saw a notable decline in the first quarter, dropping nearly 30% year-on-year, which significantly affected orders for some overseas battery cell manufacturers targeting the North American market.

Looking ahead to the second quarter, Europe is expected to remain the largest source of incremental overseas ternary demand. Despite some disruptions caused by the tax rebate policy change, the outlook for European demand remains positive, as more battery cell and ternary cathode material manufacturers are scheduled to complete construction and begin production within this year and next.