Tungsten Market Transaction Recovery Provided Support, Tungsten Prices Showed Signs of Stopping Falling After Over Two Months of Decline Exceeding 61% [SMM Commentary]

SMM May 26:

The average price of wolframite concentrates on May 26 was reported at 400,500 yuan/standard tonne (65%WO3 basis). After falling nearly 62% over more than two months, the average price showed signs of stabilization. Currently, downstream procurement demand in the tungsten market increased, and transactions across the entire tungsten industry chain—from tungsten concentrates, APT, and powder to tungsten scrap—recovered. Low-priced supplies in the market gradually diminished, and the industry as a whole showed signs of stopping its decline and stabilizing.

Wolframite Concentrates Fell 61.88% over 2+ Months, Prices Stabilized on the 26th

The pace of decline in tungsten concentrate prices slowed, with in-market transactions dominated by medium- and low-grade ore, while high-grade ore transactions remained relatively sluggish. As industry inventory continued to be cleared, downstream restocking demand increased, mine auction transactions proceeded smoothly, and transaction prices were slightly higher than spot order prices in the market, effectively boosting market sentiment. On the 25th, a tungsten enterprise in Guangdong announced that its long-term contract prices for 55% wolframite concentrates for the second half of May were higher than spot order prices in the market, providing strong support for the market bottom and further consolidating the industry's trend of halting declines. The specific long-term contract prices were: 55% wolframite concentrates at 414,000 yuan/standard tonne (65%WO3 basis), 55% scheelite concentrates at 413,000 yuan/standard tonne (65%WO3 basis), and APT long-term contract prices at 660,000 yuan/mt.

After tungsten prices hit a record high on March 16, they entered an overall pullback trend due to weak demand, with tungsten prices experiencing a deep correction over more than 2 months. According to SMM quotes, on May 26, the quotation range for wolframite concentrates (≥65%) was 400,000–401,000 yuan/standard tonne (65%WO3 basis), with an average price of 400,500 yuan/standard tonne (65%WO3 basis), unchanged from the previous trading day. Compared to the record high of 1,050,500 yuan/standard tonne (65%WO3 basis) on March 16, the average price of wolframite concentrates fell by 650,000 yuan/standard tonne (65%WO3 basis) in just over 2 months, a decline of as much as 61.88%!

Since May, China's APT enterprises undertook maintenance, production cuts, and price-supporting measures through output reduction, effectively digesting earlier inventory. As raw material prices gradually stabilized, smelters' willingness to hold prices firm strengthened, downstream just-in-time procurement gradually followed, and market trading activity rebounded slightly. Combined with the support formed by major producers' long-term contract pricing being finalized, APT prices stopped falling, and the market gradually entered a consolidation-at-lows phase. The tungsten powder market continued to see catch-up declines, though the pace of decline slowed down. Recently, the tungsten scrap market stopped falling and stabilized, recycled tungsten enterprises showed insufficient willingness to sell at low prices, and tungsten scrap transactions improved somewhat.

Outlook

Regarding the outlook for tungsten, overall, driven by orderly inventory destocking, the return of downstream just-in-time procurement, and the formation of pricing consensus among industry leaders, the tungsten market as a whole entered a bottoming and recovery phase. Going forward, close attention should be paid to the execution of long-term contracts and the pace of end-use demand recovery. According to SMM survey, downstream cemented carbide enterprises' inventories have currently fallen to low levels, with expectations of rigid restocking demand. However, affected by the fact that the market has yet to fully stabilize, enterprises are cautious in procurement, generally adopting a small-order purchasing model. If upstream raw material inventories continue to be cleared and the supply-demand imbalance eases, tungsten prices are expected to enter a stabilization and consolidation phase in June-July.

In the medium and long-term, the gap in mining quota transitions in Q3 may lead to a contraction in market supply, coupled with expectations for the traditional "September-October peak season" of consumption, the industry's supply-demand structure will continue to optimize, thereby providing bullish support for tungsten prices.