Data: SHFE, DCE market movement (May 28)

The most-traded HRC contract closed at 3,365, up 0.12%; spot market side, HRC prices in most cities were stable with slight increases, while cold galvanized prices remained stable. In the short term, bearish expectations on raw material supply and downstream demand have been partially digested. Combined with the stimulus from coke price hike news, ferrous metals are expected to move sideways in the short term, making it difficult to break through the upper or lower bounds of the range. HRC fundamentals side, inventory is unlikely to see a trend of inventory buildup before mid-June, and the most-traded HRC contract is expected to continue moving sideways within the range of 3,330-3,450.

[SMM Daily HRC Trading] On May 28, the combined daily trading volume of HRC from sample enterprises in SMM's four cities (Shanghai, Lecong, Tianjin, Ningbo) totaled 14,090 mt, up 1,360 mt DoD (+10.7%), up 31.81% YoY (solar calendar), and up 20.02% YoY (lunar calendar).

[SMM Steel] European carbon prices for December 2026 EUA contracts rose to around €79/t in late May, supported by volatility in energy markets, optimism over a potential EU-UK carbon market linkage, and ongoing discussions on EU ETS reform. Market participants noted that UK carbon prices surged 6% on May 26 to £56.67/t, while EUAs climbed above €79/t on May 27. Meanwhile, six EU countries including Poland, Czech Republic, and Greece called for greater protection for heavy industry through increased free carbon allowances amid high energy costs and geopolitical pressures. The EU is expected to conduct a mid-term ETS review by July 2026.