Lithium Ore:
This week, lithium ore prices remained in the doldrums, with the transaction center moving down slightly along with the pullback in lithium chemicals. During the week, spot lithium carbonate and futures were in the doldrums, acceptance of high-priced ore by lithium chemical plants declined, raw material purchases were mainly for restocking to meet immediate needs, sentiment to push for lower prices strengthened, market inquiries continued to exist, but the pace of actual transactions was rather cautious. Supply side, shipment pace from mainstream Australian mines was generally stable, and the arrival of African ore and subsequent export policy disruptions remained the main market concern. In the short term, the ore side did not show significant concentrated volume release, but against the backdrop of weakening lithium chemical prices, buyers revised down their expectations for future ore prices. Cost side, profit pressure persisted for some lithium chemical plants that externally purchased high-priced ore, exerting certain negative feedback on ore prices. Overall, the dominant factor in lithium ore pricing still came mainly from price changes on the lithium chemical side and the recovery of smelting profits. Short-term spodumene prices are expected to remain in the doldrums. If lithium chemical prices stabilize or downstream restocking demand recovers later on, sentiment to hold prices firm on the ore side may strengthen.
Lithium Carbonate:
This week, spot lithium carbonate prices continued to drift lower, with the price center further shifting down to near the 150,000 yuan/mt mark. Futures drifted lower. The price range of the most-traded 2609 contract consolidated from 147,800-153,600 yuan/mt at the start of the week to 145,900-152,500 yuan/mt, hitting a low of 145,900 yuan/mt mid-week, refreshing a recent low. Open interest first decreased and then increased, with the tug-of-war between longs and shorts persisting. Market transactions showed a standoff pattern of "downstream dip-buying and upstream holding back from selling," but actual transactions were relatively active. Upstream lithium chemical plants had extremely low willingness to sell during the rapid price decline phase, sentiment to hold back from selling intensified, some spot order quotes remained above 160,000 yuan/mt, and a clear mindset to hold prices firm emerged. Downstream material plants showed relatively active purchasing sentiment below 150,000 yuan/mt, but large-scale centralized stockpiling behavior still did not materialize, and purchasing actions remained cautious, dominated by immediate needs. Overall, market inquiries and actual transactions continued to be relatively active, but the psychological price spread between upstream and downstream still existed. Supply-side production continued to decline, and inventory in the industry chain remained divergent. This week, lithium carbonate production continued to decline, mainly because some lithium chemical plants entered planned maintenance, leading to significant reductions in spodumene production lines. In terms of inventory changes: Upstream lithium chemical plants saw slight inventory buildup in their in-factory stocks due to extremely low willingness to sell and holding back from selling; downstream material plants' purchasing enthusiasm rebounded WoW, but affected by prices still being on a rapid downward trajectory, purchasing actions were cautious, overall showing slight inventory buildup; at the trader level, due to marginal improvement in downstream purchasing, combined with lithium chemical plants' reluctance to sell and their own capital pressures, inventory destocking was relatively pronounced. Looking ahead, short-term lithium carbonate prices are expected to continue consolidating on a subdued note. Supply side, maintenance at some lithium chemical plants persists, production is contracting, and lithium chemical plants holding back from selling spot orders may provide some support for prices. Demand side, downstream purchasing is cautious and mostly need-based, with targeted purchase prices still in a tug-of-war with the upstream willingness to sell. The core contradiction in the current market lies in: downstream purchasing willingness strengthens below 150,000 yuan/mt, providing a floor for prices; but upstream price-holding and reluctance to sell coexist with downstream cautious purchasing. It is recommended to closely monitor changes in the downstream restocking pace and the progress of maintenance recovery at lithium chemical plants in the short term.
Lithium Hydroxide:
This week, lithium hydroxide prices continued to decline WoW. Overall lithium market sentiment was sluggish, dragging lithium ore and lithium chemical prices down in tandem. Supply side, most enterprises maintained normal production, while a few were constrained by raw material supply and operated at low loads. On the trading front, lithium chemical plants showed strong willingness to hold prices firm, with current quotations generally above 145,000 yuan/mt; traders mostly referenced the lithium carbonate futures September contract, with discounts in the range of 15,000-18,000 yuan/mt. Some downstream material plants and battery cell manufacturers, beyond long-term contracts and customer-supplied materials, made sporadic inquiries and purchases driven by low prices, with actual transaction prices falling to 132,000-140,000 yuan/mt, dragging down formal market prices. While overall transactions were somewhat sluggish this week, they improved slightly from the prior period.
Refined Cobalt:
This week, spot refined cobalt prices returned to a grinding lower pattern. Supply side, major smelters slightly raised their EXW prices to 390,000 yuan/mt, but after the market continued to weaken, most traders suspended external quotations, and market sentiment turned cautious. Demand side, with the arrival of hot weather, downstream enterprises gradually entered their summer break, exhibiting sluggish purchasing willingness and only maintaining small-volume need-based restocking. There were no significant changes in the fundamentals of refined cobalt this week. Amid extremely thin trading, bearish sentiment triggered minor fund outflows that notably weighed on prices. Overall, from July to August is the traditional consumption off-season for refined cobalt, and with limited demand support, short-term prices are likely to remain in the doldrums.
Intermediate Products:
This week, cobalt intermediate product prices remained broadly stable. Supply side, some Chinese-funded miners based their offers on the European standard low-end refined cobalt price multiplied by (cobalt hydroxide payable - premium), but due to significant divergence in expectations of the premium coefficient between upstream and downstream, actual transactions progressed sluggishly. Demand side, cobalt salt market valuations remained low, and the raw material purchasing price acceptable to downstream smelters was only around $22-23/lb, with only a small number of trader inventory sources transacting within this range. In the short term, miners' willingness to hold prices firm persists, but demand support from the downstream smelting sector is insufficient, leaving buyers and sellers locked in a standoff. Intermediate product prices are expected to remain stable.
Cobalt Salts (Cobalt Sulphate and Cobalt Chloride):
This week, the cobalt sulphate market saw sluggish transactions.Supply side: Primary smelters kept offers high, with mainstream players holding the 85,000 yuan/mt threshold; recycled-material smelters, to speed up cash turnover, maintained their lowest offers at 80,000-81,000 yuan/mt. Demand side showed no improvement. Top-tier players still had relatively ample inventories and had not released procurement demand yet. A new round of restocking is expected to possibly start only after August. Small and medium-sized enterprises had rigid demand, but the subdued prices dampened their stockpiling enthusiasm, leaving them only purchasing as needed in small volumes. In the short term, cobalt sulphate prices are expected to consolidate on a subdued note; sustained recovery of the market still needs to wait for the realization of concentrated downstream restocking demand.
This week, the cobalt chloride market extended its sluggish pattern, with sparse actual transactions, but enquiry activity picked up from earlier. Supply side: Most producers still held offer prices above 100,000 yuan/mt; headline offers saw little change, but in actual negotiations some room for concessions remained. Demand side: Downstream raw material inventory was still ample, coupled with weak end-user orders, and overall purchasing interest remained insufficient. Overall, market pessimism continued to spread, placing strong constraints on prices and procurement pace. In the short term, prices are likely to remain mostly stable, but there is still a chance of further downside in Q3.
Cobalt Salt (Co3O4):
This week, the Co3O4 market likewise remained sluggish, with very few actual transactions.Supply side: Affected by both softer demand and high in-house inventories, most companies have gradually reduced their production schedules, though prices have recently stabilized and enterprises are generally unwilling to further lower offers to sell. Demand side: Although inventory levels of cathode material producers vary, they remain generally high, and at this stage there is virtually no active purchasing interest. In the short term, Co3O4 prices are expected to move sideways mainly.
Nickel Sulphate:
As of Thursday this week, the SMM average price of battery-grade nickel sulphate edged down.
From the demand side, in the middle of the month, downstream enterprises still hold raw material inventories, stockpiling sentiment is weak, and acceptance of nickel salt prices is relatively low. From the supply side, on one hand, some recyclers sought to sell cargoes in mid-month; on the other hand, MHP payables and auxiliary material prices remain high, and some producers also hold expectations for production cuts. This is expected to overall accelerate market destocking. Looking ahead, the overall market this month is expected to remain dominated by destocking, with nickel sulphate prices under pressure.
Inventory side, this week the upstream nickel salt smelter inventory index slipped from 9.5 days to 9.3 days, the downstream precursor plant inventory index fell from 11.7 days to 10.6 days, and the integrated enterprise inventory index held steady at 8.1 days. In terms of buying/selling strength, this week the upstream nickel salt smelter Willingness to Sell Sentiment Factor remained at 1.8, the downstream precursor plant Willingness to Buy Sentiment Factor remained at 2.5, and the integrated enterprise sentiment factor remained at 2.4. (Historical data can be accessed in the database)
Ternary cathode precursor:
This week, edged down slightly, nickel sulphate and fell this week, edged up.
Discount side, for July and Q3 orders, due to relatively high sulphate raw material costs, some producers showed willingness to raise discounts. In long-term contracts, some producers’ annual agreements were fixed at the beginning of the year, and coefficients have yet to be raised. For quarterly contracts, downstream buyers also showed weak acceptance for coefficient hikes, with overall levels remaining stable compared with Q2. In spot orders, some consumer-oriented spot nickel and cobalt payables had edged up in June. However, due to the relatively weak recent performance of nickel and cobalt salt prices, overall coefficients for July orders have not seen further increases.
Production side, top-tier producers’ export orders remained strong this month, with production schedules staying at relatively high levels. However, some producers lowered production loads due to some finished product inventory buildup resulting from downstream mid-year inventory control.
Looking ahead, sulphate prices have generally pulled back recently, and the pricing of subsequent new orders will need to watch the pace of downstream stockpiling in Q3.
Ternary cathode material:
This week, ternary cathode material prices remained in a downward trend.Raw material side, nickel sulphate and cobalt sulphate prices consolidated and edged down slightly due to sluggish market transactions; manganese sulphate price edged up; lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide prices saw a more notable decline recently, affected by capital-side disturbances. Trading sentiment side, last week, when lithium chemical prices fell rapidly, some producers restocked at low price levels, leading to relatively active trading. Entering this week, as raw material prices continued to decline without signs of stopping, downstream battery cell manufacturers generally turned cautious and adopted a wait-and-see stance amid relatively ample inventories, causing the procurement pace to slow down; overall trading sentiment was relatively sluggish this week. Discount side, affected by the continued decline in absolute nickel sulphate prices, some ternary producers raised the nickel sulphate discount at settlement, while discounts for other metals remained relatively stable. Demand side, recently, EV market demand has stayed high, with orders being executed normally; consumer market demand continued to be mediocre.
LFP:
This week, LFP prices trended downward, impacted by falling lithium carbonate prices, dropping about 880 yuan/mt, while SMM lithium carbonate prices fell a cumulative 4,000 yuan/mt this week. On the processing fee side, leading LFP enterprises recently announced fee increases. It can be seen that while some small and medium-sized battery cell manufacturers have begun linking iron phosphate prices with cathode plants for settlement, low acceptance of this model among leading battery cell clients likely prompted this move to raise the fixed price (base price). SMM will continue to monitor final implementation. In production, LFP enterprises were active this week, with the production ramp-up accelerating and downstream order demand continuing to grow. According to SMM survey, July demand mainly came from the commercial vehicle and ESS sectors, driving a MoM increase of about 7% in the cathode material industry's overall production schedule. At this stage, final implementation appears achievable. On the inventory side, some enterprises saw orders exceed production capacity, and days of inventories continued to decline.
Iron Phosphate:
This week, SMM iron phosphate prices remained unchanged, with upstream and downstream negotiations largely concluded, and newly signed orders landing at about 14,700-15,700 yuan/mt. For the whole month, market quotations for non-phosphoric acid process products were around 15,500 yuan/mt, with actual transaction prices at about 14,700-15,300 yuan/mt; phosphoric acid process product quotations were around 16,000 yuan/mt, with actual transaction prices at about 15,400-15,600 yuan/mt. All rose 1,000 yuan/mt from last month's quotations. On the raw material side, phosphoric acid prices edged down in July, influenced by a slight correction in sulphur prices and still-low thermal-process acid prices, with transaction prices around 9,500-10,100 yuan/mt this month. The market price of ferrous sulphate held at about 800 yuan/mt. Monoammonium phosphate (MAP) prices remained stable. Although upstream producers intended to raise prices, price increases were hard to realize due to price controls and low purchase willingness from downstream iron phosphate enterprises, leaving market prices at about 7,500 yuan/mt. On the production side, iron phosphate enterprises generally maintained stable production this week, but overall July growth was limited by capacity constraints. Downstream, LFP demand continued to improve, with an expected MoM increase of about 7%.
LCO:
This week, the LCO market extended its stable but subdued trend.Price centers of upstream lithium carbonate and Co3O4 continued to shift lower, exerting some downward pressure on LCO quotations, yet the lower prices did not effectively feed through to transactions. The demand side remained lackluster, with downstream orders generally weak. As raw material prices had yet to stabilize, buyers largely maintained a wait-and-see approach, entering the market mainly for essential, sporadic purchases, with few sizeable deals seen. Sellers and buyers were still in a stalemate, waiting for clearer direction. The subsequent trend still needed to be tracked, including changes in upstream raw material costs and whether downstream restocking pace could see a substantive improvement.
Anode:
This week, artificial graphite stayed stable in price. Supply side, among first- and second-tier enterprises, in-house integrated capacity was struggling to match the continued ramp-up in downstream orders, and the tightness in spot circulation showed no sign of easing. Meanwhile, material prices resumed consecutive gains; coupled with previously unabsorbed cost pressure, cost support remained solid. On the natural graphite side, end-use purchasing demand stayed weak and downstream push for lower prices was widespread; however, prices moved sideways near the cost line for an extended period, with buyers and sellers locked in a stalemate. Looking ahead, for artificial graphite, improving market demand and tight effective supply, together with cost pressure gradually passing through to downstream, were expected to support a steady price rise; for natural graphite, due to the lack of effective demand-side drivers, prices were still likely to consolidate in the short term, with insufficient momentum for a trend breakout.
Separator:
This week, the separator market was broadly stable. By specific quotations, prices of mid- to high-end wet-process separator products stayed firm: 5μm (5μ+2μ) was quoted at 1.57-1.87 yuan/m², 7μm (7μ+2μ) mainstream quotations were 1.14-1.337 yuan/m², and 9μm (9μ+3μ) was quoted at 1.135-1.29 yuan/m². On the supply side, new capacity additions in July were still mainly released via line-by-line production line retrofits, with a slow pace of growth. Top-tier players had accepted the current quotation levels, and prices in July were expected to remain broadly stable. However, performance varied by product: base film saw limited price increases, mainly because second- and third-tier enterprises maintained highly competitive quotations; coated products, due to tight supply and demand, were relatively firm in price. From the supply and demand fundamentals, the separator market was still in undersupply. In July, terminal production schedules rose by about 7% MoM, and both the EV and ESS sectors stayed highly buoyant; driven by this, July separator production rose 3.71% MoM, but production growth was still below end-use demand growth, and the supply-demand gap remained. Overall industry operating rate stayed above 80%. Battery cell enterprises not only locked in mainstream separator capacity, but some long-term contracts were further extended to second- and third-tier separator enterprises, keeping overall industry capacity utilization rate high. After the previous round of price adjustments was implemented, the market entered a new price execution phase. In the short term, separator prices were expected to remain stable, with subsequent moves depending on the pace of new capacity release and downstream acceptance of price increases.
Electrolyte
This week, electrolyte market prices stayed temporarily stable. Cost side, this week the decline in spot lithium carbonate prices narrowed markedly; together with the fact that orders for the month were basically signed, spot trades were limited, and LiPF6 prices entered a short-term stabilisation phase. In the solvent segment, affected by disruptions from Middle East geopolitical conflicts, upstream petrochemical raw materials such as propylene oxide were marked up again, but there was a lag in cost pass-through to downstream, so prices stayed stable in the short term. On the additive side, the earlier concentrated procurement cycle for VC had ended; mainstream supply in the market was mainly for delivery of previously signed orders, spot trading activity was not high, and prices stayed temporarily stable. However, as downstream battery cell demand continued to expand, the tight supply-demand pattern in the industry had not improved, and VC still had momentum for further price increases. Considering the trends of various raw materials, electrolyte costs showed no obvious fluctuations, and market prices stayed temporarily stable. From the supply-demand perspective, power battery enterprises’ production schedules continued to grow steadily; energy storage demand also remained highly buoyant, and ESS battery cell output rose in tandem. Electrolyte enterprises generally implemented a produce based on sales strategy, raising production load in step with downstream battery cell demand, and industry production increased steadily. Overall, electrolyte price trends had a strong linkage to raw material costs, and it was still necessary to continuously track fluctuations in upstream raw material prices and the pace at which cost pass-through was implemented downstream.
Sodium-ion battery:
This week, sodium-ion NFPP cathode continued the trend of full-capacity production with orders surging, with first-tier enterprises running at full load since Q2. Monthly shipments reached the hundreds-of-mt level, but new capacity additions within the year were limited, and supply growth was tight. The industry advanced multi-path capacity expansion in parallel: some enterprises used toll processing via retrofitting lithium battery production lines, completing commissioning by month-end September and achieving small-scale mass production in October; other cooperative lines were set to start in August, and new base site selection was close to downstream plants to shorten the supporting cycle. The pace of hard carbon anode capacity rollout lagged behind cathode, and the industry remained in a tight balance supply stage, mainly constrained by both technology and funding. Diversified precursor route deployment accelerated, with bamboo-based as the main route and wood-based and coal-based routes advancing simultaneously to diversify supply chain risks; the coal-based route had strong potential for volume ramp-up, but performance still had shortcomings.
Recycling:
On the raw material side, prices of three salts—lithium carbonate, nickel sulphate, and cobalt sulphate—continued to fall this week. This week, by ternary, LCO, and LFP material types, on the LFP wet-process side: taking LFP electrode black mass as an example, the current price was 6,650-7,100 yuan/prices per % lithium, and transaction prices also continued to fall WoW from last Thursday. This was mainly because lithium carbonate prices were in the doldrums this week, further driving a slight downward adjustment in LFP black mass prices. Meanwhile, LFP battery black mass was priced at 6,100-6,450 yuan/prices per % lithium, and the price spread versus electrode black mass gradually widened. This was mainly because multiple LFP repair enterprises were active in production and primarily purchased LFP electrodes, expanding the demand market for scrap LFP electrodes. Therefore, some LFP wet-process enterprises switched to purchasing LFP battery black mass, or additionally purchased LFP electrode black mass at higher prices. On the ternary and LCO side, ternary electrode black mass nickel and cobalt payables were around 76-79, and the market began to see low-price deals one after another, with the lower end of the range seeing a slight decline in payables. Lithium payables for pure cobalt and high-cobalt scrap also edged down. With cobalt sulphate prices continuing to fall and end-use consumption in the consumer market sluggish, upstream wet-process enterprises saw sluggish purchasing transactions.
Downstream and end-use:
This week, prices of DC-side battery cabins in China edged down, while prices of overseas energy storage battery cabins edged up. The FOB China average price for a 5MWh India DC-side energy storage battery cabin (export to India) - 5MWh/0.5C&0.25C was 71.25 USD/KWh. Announcement of shortlisted candidates for the EPC tender of the 100,000 kW standalone ESS pilot project of Hengshui Jiuwei Technology Co., Ltd., Wuqiang County. The No. 1 shortlisted candidate was China Railway Electrification Bureau Group Co., Ltd. (PowerChina Group Hebei province Electric Power Survey & Design Institute Co., Ltd.), with a bid price of 365,013,530 yuan and a unit price of 0.9125 yuan/Wh; the No. 2 shortlisted candidate was Henan Tongxin Electric Power Engineering Co., Ltd. (Henan Qiyuan Electric Power Survey & Design Co., Ltd.), with a bid price of 372,782,081.44 yuan and a unit price of 0.932 yuan/Wh; the No. 3 shortlisted candidate was Xingneng Power Construction Co., Ltd., with a bid price of 371,640,008.34 yuan and a unit price of 0.9291 yuan/Wh.
News:
[In June, China’s EV and ESS battery sales rose 49.1% YoY] China Automotive Battery Innovation Alliance released power battery data for June 2026. In June, China’s EV and ESS battery sales were 196.0 Gwh, up 7.6% MoM and up 49.1% YoY. Among them, power battery sales were 133.4 Gwh, accounting for 68.1% of total sales, up 5.0% MoM and up 41.8% YoY; ESS battery sales were 62.6 Gwh, accounting for 31.9% of total sales, up 13.4% MoM and up 67.5% YoY. From January to June, China’s cumulative EV and ESS battery sales were 979.4 Gwh, up 48.6% YoY. Among them, cumulative power battery sales were 661.3 Gwh, accounting for 67.5% of total sales, up 36.2% YoY; cumulative ESS battery sales were 318.1 Gwh, accounting for 32.5% of total sales, up 83.4% YoY.
[China Securities: Bullish on allocation value in lithium battery equipment and solid-state battery segments] China Securities’ research report believed that the lithium battery equipment industry continued the logic chain of “record-high production schedules—order fulfilment—profit recovery.” In July, China’s lithium battery production schedule was about 283 Gwh, up 5.6% MoM, setting a new historical peak for the fifth consecutive month. The share of ESS battery cells rose to 42.9%, and demand shifted from a single-pole boost by NEVs to multi-pole growth, with energy storage rising to the No. 1 growth engine and sustaining buoyancy on the equipment side. Solid-state battery industrialisation accelerated: GWh-level all-solid-state production lines were commissioned intensively, construction of pilot lines by top-tier battery makers also accelerated, and the industry classification standard for solid-state batteries was officially released in July. The industry accelerated from policy guidance toward standardised development, equipment-side orders were gradually implemented, and Jin Yinhe’s receipt of a 2 Gwh solid-state production line front-end core equipment order from Jinlongyu marked the beginning of equipment-side benefits. 2026 was regarded by multiple automakers as the first year for verification of all-solid-state industrialisation, and the equipment tender window was opening. In addition, lithium battery equipment enterprises were building a second growth curve through platform-based expansion, go global deployment, and positioning in new technologies, smoothing cyclical fluctuations on the operations side and driving a re-rating on the valuation side from “cyclical lithium battery equipment makers” to “platform-based high-end equipment makers.” The sector was currently in a triple-resonance window of “highly buoyant production schedules + accelerated solid-state industrialisation + sodium-ion battery commercialisation,” and it remained bullish on the allocation value of lithium battery equipment and solid-state battery segments.
[The group standard “Rules for Vehicle Cost Estimation in China’s Automotive Industry” was officially released] Recently, the group standard “Rules for Vehicle Cost Estimation in China’s Automotive Industry,” organised and led by CAAM and jointly compiled by 18 mainstream domestic automakers, was officially released. This was the first unified cost estimation rule in China for the complete vehicle sector, ending the industry’s long-standing history of cost accounting with “inconsistent standards and no benchmarks.” It was both a key measure for the automotive industry to rectify disorderly price competition and promote high-quality development, and an important achievement for the entire industry to build consensus and jointly establish self-regulatory rules. (From Wallstreetcn APP)
SMM New Energy Research Team
Wang Cong 021-51666838
Ma Rui 021-51595780
Lin Ziya 86-2151666902
Feng Disheng 021-51666714
Lyu Yanlin 021-20707875
Zhou Zhicheng 021-51666711
Wang Zihan 021-51666914
Wang Jie 021-51595902
Zhang Haohan 021-51666752
Chen Bolin 021-51666836
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