Rising Fuel Costs and Shipping Congestion Drive Up International Magnesium Freight Rates

In May, China's magnesium product exports fell 4% MoM to 37.6kt. Magnesium ingot exports rose 13.7% MoM on auto and aluminum demand, while magnesium powder and alloy dropped 31.3% and 22.5% due to weak overseas demand. Japan's Jan-May imports surged 76.6% YoY, likely front-loaded, with downside risks in H2. Full-year exports are still expected to see modest growth despite headwinds from freight costs and maintenance shutdowns.

[SMM Magnesium Weekly Inventory Brief] This week, social inventories decreased by 3.00% month-on-month, showing a regional divergence. In major production areas, inventory reduction was more pronounced due to the progress of long-term contract deliveries and production cuts by some manufacturers. Meanwhile, Tianjin Port experienced slight inventory accumulation as low-priced resources stimulated traders' stockpiling. Overall, the inventory reduction in production areas provided some bottom support for magnesium prices, but the port inventory accumulation reflects persistent export difficulties, with short-term supply-demand imbalances still awaiting resolution.

Since the start of June, the tug-of-war between sellers and buyers over magnesium prices has been intensifying. The EXW price of 99.90% magnesium ingot (Fugu, Shenmu) moved sideways around 16,300–16,400 yuan/mt, with the trading range narrowing significantly. The magnesium market was mired in a supply-demand stalemate, as end-users' acceptance of high magnesium prices declined markedly, while primary magnesium smelters held their bottom line supported by costs.