【SMM Analysis】Cobalt market diverges: Metal choppy, Intermediate steady awaiting upside, Sulfate stabilizes

Refined Cobalt:
Spot refined cobalt prices maintained a fluctuating trend this week. Supply side, mainstream smelters slightly raised ex-factory prices, while other smelters maintained parity in their quotes; traders lowered the spot basis for mainstream brands to a premium of 7,000-8,000 yuan/mt to accelerate capital turnover. Demand side, downstream alloy and magnetic material enterprises continued just-in-time procurement restocking strategies, strictly controlling raw material inventory risks. From the price ratio perspective, the metal price spread between refined cobalt prices and low-priced cobalt salts has narrowed significantly, and enterprises' willingness to produce refined cobalt through reverse dissolution has pulled back accordingly. Refined cobalt prices are expected to move sideways in the short term, and future price rises still require effective support from cobalt salt prices.

Cobalt Intermediate Products:
Cobalt intermediate product prices remained stable this week. Supply side, most suppliers held relatively optimistic expectations for the market outlook, with quotes continuing to stay above $26/lb. Demand side saw no significant changes; affected by insufficient momentum for cobalt salt prices to follow upward, the market maintained only small volumes of just-in-time procurement, with intended transaction prices fluctuating around $25.8/lb. Shipping side, DRC cobalt intermediate product cargoes remained stranded at South African ports and in overland transportation. Only a few miners completed small-batch vessel bookings in April, with arrivals expected from May to June. Dragged by tight shipping capacity on African routes, other large-volume cargoes may be delayed until July for concentrated arrivals. Looking ahead, once downstream orders gradually materialize and restocking demand is progressively released, cobalt intermediate product prices still have room for upward recovery.

Cobalt Sulphate:
Spot cobalt sulphate prices stopped falling and stabilized this week. Supply side, mainstream brand quote centers remained in the range of 93,000-96,000 yuan/mt; driven by the rebound in refined cobalt prices, some smelters and traders that previously made concessions on shipments have slightly raised their quotes, and low-priced resources below 90,000 yuan/mt have decreased notably. Demand side, downstream enterprises overall were still consuming earlier inventory, with weak purchase willingness to enter the market, and only individual just-in-time procurement restocked small volumes at low prices. However, some Co3O4 enterprises have recently increased inquiry activities, with purchasing sentiment showing signs of recovery. From production schedule plans, both ternary and LCO enterprises saw restorative increases in May production schedules MoM. As downstream gradually initiates restocking, cobalt sulphate prices are expected to see a phased recovery rebound.