This week, spot lithium carbonate prices fell steadily, with the center of gravity gradually shifting downward. The futures market was weak, with the most-traded September 2026 contract drifting lower from a range of 163,300-168,700 yuan/mt at the start of the week to 151,000-166,400 yuan/mt, hitting a weekly low of 151,000 yuan/mt mid-week—a weekly decline of about 6.8%. Open interest fell then rose, with bears taking the dominant position.
Market transactions showed a stalemate between downstream dip-buying and upstream price-firming, with actual deal activity relatively brisk. Upstream, lithium chemical plants continued to hold back from selling, with some enterprises still anchoring to the psychological 170,000 yuan/mt level and unwilling to sell at low prices, only showing a stronger willingness to sell at relatively high price levels. Downstream material plants continued to buy the dip, with strong buying interest around 150,000 yuan/mt; some enterprises, considering the recent wide price fluctuations, lean toward adopting backward pricing models to hedge against short-term price rise risks. Overall, market inquiry and actual deal activity were relatively brisk, but a significant gap remained between upstream and downstream psychological price levels.
On the supply side, production continued to fall, with notable divergence in inventory across the supply chain. Lithium carbonate production continued to decline this week, mainly due to some lithium chemical plants going into planned maintenance, leading to marked reductions in output at lines using spodumene and lepidolite as raw material; production from salt lake and recycling sources remained stable, maintaining a modest upward trajectory. In terms of inventory changes: upstream lithium chemical plants continued to hold prices firm on spot orders, but under output fluctuations, in-factory inventory kept destocking; downstream material plants matched warrants around delivery months, purchasing mostly on a just-in-time basis, with inventories also slightly drawing down; traders increased their warrant-taking, while downstream showed no strong willingness to sell in large volumes, causing a moderate buildup in trader inventories. Overall, inventory conditions diverged clearly across segments, with the tug-of-war between sellers and buyers continuing. Fund flows featured dominant bearish position-building. Futures open interest grew overall alongside price declines, with a particularly notable 5,434-lot increase on July 9, suggesting active shorts entering the market, with sentiment running bearish.
Looking ahead, in the short term, lithium carbonate prices are expected to maintain a fluctuating subdued note. Supply side, ongoing maintenance at some lithium chemical plants and tightening raw material circulation offer some support to prices; however, the supply flexibility from Q3 shipment arrivals of Zimbabwean lithium ore and the effective supply of domestic lithium carbonate from Jiangxi mines remain key variables going forward. Demand side, downstream just-in-time procurement and willingness to restock near 150,000 yuan/mt provide price floors, but momentum to chase higher prices is lacking. Lithium prices are expected to consolidate within the 150,000-165,000 yuan/mt range in the near term.
![[SMM Analysis] The recent market transaction sentiment for ternary cathodes is relatively sluggish.](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/PBUeR20251217171730.jpg)
