[SMM Weekly Review] The cobalt market saw sluggish trading this week, with prices of some products grinding lower again.

Refined Cobalt:

This week, spot refined cobalt prices consolidated sideways around 380,000 yuan/mt. On the supply side, mainstream smelters raised their EXW prices slightly to 390,000 yuan/mt; trader quotes remained at spot-futures price spreads ranging from parity to a premium of 10,000 yuan/mt. On the demand side, downstream conditions changed little this week, with most enterprises maintaining just-in-need restocking and end-use demand showing no material improvement. In the short term, with weak downstream support and inventory at high levels across the industry, prices may primarily consolidate; for refined cobalt prices to enter a recovery channel, they still depend on price rises in upstream categories such as cobalt intermediate products and cobalt sulphate to provide momentum.

Cobalt Intermediate Products:

This week, cobalt intermediate product prices extended their sluggish trend. On the supply side, as previously shipped intermediate products gradually arrived at ports, some Chinese-funded miners began considering a gradual resumption of external offers, with current miner offer benchmarks based on the European standard refined cobalt low price * (cobalt hydroxide payable - premium). However, given persistently low valuations in the cobalt salt market, the acceptable raw material purchase levels for downstream smelters, implied by current spot cobalt salt prices, were only around $22-23/lb, and some traders have already chosen to cut prices to facilitate deals, with a small number of transactions occurring near that level. In the short term, with weak demand support from the downstream smelting sector, the price center for intermediate products still faces modest downward pressure; a stabilization and rebound in the market awaits an effective recovery in cobalt salt valuations to spur procurement interest.

Cobalt Sulphate:

This week, the cobalt sulphate market saw persistently sluggish trading, with prices slipping back into a subdued grind lower. On the supply side, primary smelters kept their offers firm, with mainstream enterprises continuing to defend the 85,000 yuan/mt level; however, some recycling smelters lowered their offers again to boost shipments, with the lowest quotes in the market now pulling back to 80,000-81,000 yuan/mt. Demand side showed no significant improvement, as downstream enterprises largely scheduled production paces based on orders, with product settlements generally referencing monthly average prices. To avoid the risk of spot purchase-sale price differences, most enterprises adopted a wait-and-see stance early in the month, and restocking activity will likely occur after mid-to-late July, or could be delayed until August. Recently, a few enterprises with low inventory showed intention to restock, but their psychological price level was below 80,000 yuan/mt, limiting actual transactions. In the short term, cobalt sulphate prices are expected to maintain a consolidating on a subdued note pattern, and a sustained recovery still hinges on the materialization of concentrated downstream restocking demand.

SMM New Energy Research Team

Wang Cong 021-51666838

Ma Rui 021-51595780

Feng Disheng 021-51666714

Lyu Yanlin 021-20707875

Xiao Wenhao 021-51666872

Zhang Haohan 021-51666752

Wang Zihan 021-51666914

Wang Jie 021-51595902

Xu Yang 021-51666760

Yang Lianting 021-51595835

Wang Zhaoyu 021-51666827