Futures and spot prices strengthen in tandem, but demand-side concerns linger. Weakening prices outside China are driving a continuous recovery of the price spread between Chinese and overseas markets [ADC12 Price Daily Review]

Futures side: The most-traded aluminum alloy 2609 futures contract consolidated and rose today, opening at 22,630 yuan/mt, hitting an intraday low of 22,470 yuan/mt, surging to a high of 22,835 yuan/mt, and closing the morning session at 22,815 yuan/mt, with a daily gain of 1.42%. Trading volume and open interest both increased, with a small capital inflow. The short-term RSI indicator rose to 83.21, a relatively overbought level. The four-hour candlestick closed positive, recovering some of the earlier losses. The contract had rebounded after dipping to a low of 22,230 yuan/mt, and short-term bearish momentum has somewhat dissipated. However, the overbought indicator warrants caution against short-term pullback risks.

Spot side: Offers for ADC12 in the market continued their upward adjustment today. The SMM ADC12 price rose 200 yuan/mt from the previous day to 24,000 yuan/mt. As spot aluminum prices and aluminum alloy futures rebounded continuously, cost support strengthened further, and enterprises showed noticeably greater willingness to follow with price hikes. Market sentiment recovered somewhat from the previous period. Demand side, downstream orders have yet to show significant improvement, and overall operations remained stable. Some enterprises reported that their order-taking situation has changed little since July, with the market still dominated by just-in-time procurement. Therefore, the current rise in ADC12 prices reflects a cost-push logic rather than a clear demand recovery. In the context of tight aluminum scrap supply and high costs, ADC12 prices are expected to hold up well within a narrow range in the short term, but the extent of any sustained price rise will depend on the actual absorptive capacity of end-use demand.

Import side, prices in markets outside China accelerated their decline. Imported ADC12 offers fell back to the $3,100-3,200/mt range. Domestic prices, conversely, showed strength, and the price spread between Chinese and overseas markets narrowed further. The current loss sits at approximately 1,087 yuan/mt, narrowing to a level last seen in early March. If domestic prices remain firm and overseas prices continue their downtrend, the price spread between Chinese and overseas markets could narrow further, and an opening of the import window is anticipated.