[SMM Manganese Ore Weekly Review] Demand Lacks Strength, Wait-and-See Sentiment Dominates

July 3 news flash:

North ports: South African high-iron 30.5-31.4 yuan/mtu, lower WoW; South African semi-carbonate 37.2-37.7 yuan/mtu, flat WoW; Gabonese 40.6-41 yuan/mtu, flat WoW; 46% Australian lumps 43.3-43.8 yuan/mtu, flat WoW; South African medium-iron 37-37.5 yuan/mtu, flat WoW.

South ports: South African high-iron 33.5-34 yuan/mtu, lower WoW; South African semi-carbonate 36.5-37 yuan/mtu, flat WoW; Gabonese 41-41.5 yuan/mtu, flat WoW; 46% Australian lumps 43.2-43.7 yuan/mtu, lower WoW; South African medium-iron 37-37.5 yuan/mtu, flat WoW.

The manganese ore market was in a stable stalemate, with sluggish end-use demand absorption and a prevailing wait-and-see sentiment among buyers.

Supply side, Consolidated Minerals Limited (CML) released its August 2026 offers to China, with Australian lump (Mn>46% Fe<4% SiO2<18%) quoted at $5.3/mtu, down $0.3/mtu MoM. As high-priced manganese ore arrived at ports, traders' willingness to sell at discounts waned, and port spot cargoes came under pressure, though miners still largely held prices firm.

Demand side, SiMn futures were in the doldrums, fostering a strong wait-and-see sentiment that failed to boost spot procurement. In the spot market, capacity releases in Inner Mongolia coincided with blast furnace maintenance, keeping manganese ore purchase willingness tepid. In Ningxia, producer operating rates fluctuated relatively little and mills maintained some degree of buying interest; south China alloy plants generally operated at low rates, purchasing only as needed for rigid demand, with the market atmosphere remaining sluggish. At this stage, SiMn enterprises mostly adopted a restocking-as-needed, small-parcel transactionsprocurement strategy, and post-holiday market activity was muted, with deals dominated by sporadic small parcels and marginal manganese ore demand weakening further.

Inventory side, Tianjin Port and Qinzhou Port saw inventory buildup, with manganese ore stocks at relatively high levels, capping price gains.

On the cost side, ore prices were well-supported at the bottom, but weakness in downstream alloy demand and mills' restocking-as-needed approach limited upside room. In the near term, port manganese ore prices were expected to move sideways on elevated costs, with the trend tending toward stagnant, leaving limited room both upward and downward.