Refined Cobalt:
On Monday, the spot price of refined cobalt maintained a fluctuating trend. On the supply side, the EXW price from mainstream smelters stabilized at 385,000 yuan/mt. As market conditions firmed, traders resumed offering to the market, with the spot-futures price spread continuing to trade in a range from parity to a premium of 10,000 yuan/mt. The demand side saw end-user enquiries edge up, boosted by DRC-related news, with weekly transactions improving slightly WoW. However, most market deals involved early restocking for rigid demand, as a substantive recovery in end-user demand had yet to materialize. In the short term, with insufficient downstream demand support combined with high industry inventory levels, futures prices are likely to consolidate. A recovery in refined cobalt prices still requires an upturn in upstream products such as cobalt intermediate products and cobalt sulphate to drive momentum.
Intermediate Products:
On Monday, cobalt intermediate product prices softened gradually. While recent news from the DRC slightly bolstered market sentiment, with mainstream ore miners maintaining offers above $25/lb and the lowest selling prices for small-volume cargoes from some traders stabilizing near $24/lb, the low valuation environment in the cobalt salt market meant that, based on a reverse calculation from cobalt salt spot prices, the acceptable raw material purchase price for downstream smelters was only around $23/lb. Some traders chose to cut prices to secure deals, causing the price center for intermediate products to edge down slightly. In the near term, with weak demand support from the downstream smelting sector, intermediate product prices are highly likely to continue moving sideways. A subsequent upward breakout in the market would depend on a recovery in cobalt salt valuations to drive procurement demand.
Cobalt Sulphate:
On Monday, the cobalt sulphate market remained sluggish, with prices ceasing to fall and holding largely stable. On the supply side, offers from primary smelters were generally firm, with the minimum intended selling price from mainstream enterprises holding at the 85,000 yuan/mt mark. Under the influence of recent DRC news, market pessimism eased, reducing the willingness of some recycling smelters and traders to slash prices and offload cargoes. Offers for low-priced cargoes were raised to 82,000-83,000 yuan/mt, up from 80,000-81,000 yuan/mt the previous week. The demand side showed no significant recovery, with downstream enterprises generally operating a produce-based-on-sales model and most product settlements using a monthly average price mechanism. To avoid the risk of spot purchase-to-sales price differentials, most enterprises adopted a wait-and-see sentiment in early July, with substantive restocking activities likely to be postponed until the middle or later part of the month. In the short term, cobalt sulphate prices are expected to consolidate, and a sustained market recovery will require the realization of concentrated downstream restocking demand.
Cobalt Chloride:
The cobalt chloride market continued its sluggish pattern on Monday, with enquiries increasing but actual transactions remaining sparse. Last week, the DRC announced the cancellation of unused quotas for Q2 2026. This news caused only minor market fluctuations on the morning of the announcement, settling down by the afternoon. This indicates that the current market focus has shifted from supply-side disruptions to fundamentals, self-demand, and inventory conditions. However, looking at fundamentals, significant resistance to a price rebound exists. Supply side, offers from smelters began to stabilize, with some even slightly raising offers to test the market. Yet, despite increased downstream enquiries, actual concluded deals were limited, meaning July prices will only be meaningfully referenced once representative transactions emerge. Demand side, a "rush to buy amid continuous price rise and hold back amid price downturn" mentality dominates purchasing decisions. Downstream participants are still observing whether the current stabilization is a pause within a downtrend or a true bottom, fostering a strong wait-and-see atmosphere. Overall assessment suggests prices will be largely stable in the short term, with limited further downside room.
Cobalt Salt (Co3O4):
The Co3O4 market continued its extremely sluggish trend on Monday, with very few actual transactions. Supply side, with the mid-year reporting window closed, bearish enterprises that had largely completed earlier shipments saw phased selling pressure ease, and offers stabilized this week. Demand side, although the traditional procurement window has opened, downstream cathode material producers remain largely on the sidelines against a backdrop of persistently pressured prices. Their efforts to push for lower prices have not diminished, and the continuously depressed prices further suppress upstream willingness to sell. Overall, the future trajectory of Co3O4 will still need to follow the price direction of cobalt salts, with short-term movement expected to primarily track narrow-range fluctuations in cobalt chloride.
Cobalt Powder and Others:
This week, the transaction price of cobalt powder continued to probe lower, reaching 485,000-490,000 yuan/mt. Last month, prices were pressured downward as enterprises concentrated shipments for annual and quarterly reporting. As the traditional off-season began in July, market wait-and-see sentiment intensified, and prices are expected to stabilize temporarily. Supply side, production declined considerably, mainly dedicated to delivering long-term contracts. Production cuts were more pronounced among small and medium-sized enterprises, with output halving from earlier levels for some, leading to an overall sluggish market. Upstream cobalt carbonate selling prices moved lower, gradually approaching the 200,000 yuan mark, with wait-and-see buyers resulting in scant transactions. Downstream tungsten carbide continued its persistent decline, offering weak bottom-level support. With the traditional off-season for hard alloys here, July-August, demand remains weak and sales are under pressure; a full recovery across the industry chain still awaits a rebound in end-use consumption.
Ternary Cathode Precursor:
At the start of the week, ternary cathode precursor prices weakened. Nickel sulphate prices edged lower today, while cobalt sulphate and manganese sulphate prices remained stable.
Regarding discounts, for July and Q3 orders, some producers showed a willingness to raise discounts due to the relative tightness of sulphate raw materials. On long-term contracts, coefficients for some producers' annual contracts were set early in the year and have not yet been raised, while acceptance of coefficient increases for quarterly contracts was weak on the downstream side. For the spot market, nickel and cobalt payables increased for some consumer electronics-related spot orders in June, but given the recent relatively weak performance of nickel and cobalt salt prices, payables for July orders have yet to climb further.
On the production front, export orders for top-tier producers remained robust this month, with production schedule at a relatively high level. However, some producers reduced production loads as downstream mid-year inventory control led to a build-up of finished product inventories.
Looking ahead, sulphate prices have generally pulled back recently. The pricing of new orders going forward will hinge on the pace of downstream stockpiling in Q3.
Ternary Cathode Material:
At the beginning of this week, ternary cathode material prices were basically flat. Looking at the raw materials side, nickel sulphate prices continued to edge down slightly, while prices for cobalt sulphate, manganese sulphate, lithium carbonate, and lithium hydroxide were temporarily stable. Recent market transactions remained sluggish, mainly as this period involves the execution of monthly orders at the start of the month, and battery cell manufacturers held sufficient inventory, leading to no urgent procurement needs. Although EV market demand remained at historically high levels, no further incremental room was currently visible. The consumer market remained in its traditional off-season, and overall performance was relatively steady. Regarding discounts, no significant changes were observed recently in either the EV or consumer market discounts. As absolute prices for nickel sulphate and cobalt sulphate fell, precursor producers held firm on discounts, but cathode material producers showed very limited acceptance for discount increases. It is expected that discounts will still need to go through a period of negotiation.
LCO:
The LCO market continued its previous trend on Monday. Changes in lithium carbonate and Co3O4 prices led to a slight decline in LCO offers, but the price reduction did not effectively stimulate transaction volumes. Demand remained weak, with no significant improvement in downstream orders. Amidst unstable raw material prices, buyers largely adopted a wait-and-see approach, and actual procurement was mainly based on rigid-demand spot orders, lacking large-scale transactions. Currently, both buyers and sellers are in a phase of waiting for a clear direction. The future market outlook still hinges on changes in upstream raw material costs and whether a substantive recovery occurs in the pace of downstream restocking.
News:
[CPCA's Cui Dongshu: Vehicle and Vessel Tax Adjustment Is a Landmark Step in Implementing Equal-Rights Reform for ICEVs and NEVs] Cui Dongshu, Secretary General of the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA), wrote on July 5 that this policy adjustment for energy-saving and new energy vehicle taxes represents a landmark step in the implementation of equal-rights reform for ICEVs and NEVs in China's automotive industry, and is a key tax system optimization as the new energy industry fully transitions from the policy support phase to a mature, market-driven stage. He believes this reform is conducive to the development trend of pure EVs and fully aligns with the long-term direction of high-quality development and market-based balanced development for the automotive industry. Cui Dongshu stated that equal rights for ICEVs and NEVs do not mean uniform equalization across the board, but rather the establishment of an automotive tax system featuring matching rights and responsibilities and fair tax burdens based on technical attributes, emission characteristics, and usage scenarios. (Jin10 Data APP)
[Ronbay Technology: H1 Net Profit Expected to Be 100 Million to 120 Million Yuan, Turning Losses to Gains] In H1 2026, benefiting from the continuous improvement in the new energy industry's prosperity, the company's operating performance achieved a significant recovery, and it has achieved profitability for three consecutive quarters. During the reporting period, the company continued to advance its platform-based strategy, continuously optimized its product mix and business model, steadily improved the profitability of its ternary cathode business, and achieved substantial growth in shipments to overseas clients. Meanwhile, the LFP cathode project progressed with construction as planned, the LMFP business achieved full production and full sales, the sodium-ion battery cathode business entered a phase of scaled shipments, and the effectiveness of the platform-based strategy is gradually emerging.
[US Department of Defense Initiates Strategic Procurement of Lithium Carbonate, Plans to Purchase 16,200 mt over Five Years] On July 2 local time, the US Defense Logistics Agency (DLA) issued a tender notice, planning to procure battery-grade lithium carbonate under a five-year fixed-price contract to supplement the US National Defense Stockpile. This marks the first large-scale procurement action by the United States to include lithium in the national defense stockpile. (From Wall Street CN APP)
SMM New Energy Research Team
Wang Cong 021-51666838
Ma Rui 021-51595780
Lin Ziya 86-2151666902
Feng Disheng 021-51666714
Lyu Yanlin 021-20707875
Zhou Zhicheng 021-51666711
Wang Zihan 021-51666914
Wang Jie 021-51595902
Zhang Haohan 021-51666752
Chen Bolin 021-51666836
Xu Mengqi 021-20707868
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