Refined cobalt:
This week, spot refined cobalt prices continued to move sideways within a range around 380,000 yuan/mt. Supply side, mainstream smelters slightly raised EXW prices to 390,000 yuan/mt; traders’ basis quotes stayed within a range from parity to a premium of 10,000 yuan/mt. Demand side, downstream conditions changed little this week, with most enterprises maintaining stockpiling for rigid demand, and end-use demand showing no substantive improvement yet. In the short term, with weak downstream support compounded by inventory at high levels across the industry, prices may mainly consolidate; for refined cobalt prices to enter a recovery channel, it will still depend on a rise in upstream categories such as cobalt intermediate products and cobalt sulphate to provide a boost.
Intermediate products:
This week, cobalt intermediate product prices remained in the doldrums. Supply side, as intermediate products shipped earlier arrived at ports one after another, some Chinese-funded miners began considering a gradual resumption of external quotations. Currently, miners’ quotation benchmarks were based on low-discount European standard refined cobalt prices* (cobalt hydroxide payable - premium). However, as cobalt salt market valuations stayed at low levels, back-calculating from current spot cobalt salt prices, downstream smelters’ acceptable raw material purchase levels were only around $22-23/lb. Some traders had already chosen to cut prices to sell in order to facilitate deals, and a small number of transactions emerged around this level. In the short term, with weak demand support from downstream smelting, the price center of intermediate products still faced pressure to edge down; a stabilization and rebound in the market going forward will still hinge on an effective recovery in cobalt salt valuations to bring purchasing demand into the market.
Cobalt sulphate:
This week, cobalt sulphate market transactions remained sluggish, and prices returned to a weak grind-lower trend.Supply side, primary smelters’ quotes remained firm, with mainstream enterprises continuing to hold the 85,000 yuan/mt threshold; however, some recycling smelters lowered quotes again to promote shipments, and the current lowest offers in the market had pulled back to 80,000-81,000 yuan/mt. Demand side saw no clear improvement. Downstream enterprises mostly arranged their production pace based on orders, and product settlement generally referenced monthly average prices. To avoid the risk of price differences between purchasing and sales at specific time points, most enterprises mainly adopted a wait-and-see stance at the beginning of the month. Restocking actions were still expected after mid-to-late July, or could possibly be delayed to August. Recently, a small number of enterprises had relatively low inventories and, although they intended to replenish, their psychological price level was below 80,000 yuan/mt, resulting in limited actual execution. In the short term, cobalt sulphate prices are expected to maintain a consolidation pattern on a subdued note, and a sustained recovery will still need to wait for the realization of concentrated downstream restocking demand.
Cobalt chloride:
This week, the cobalt chloride market remained sluggish. Inquiry activity increased slightly from earlier, but actual orders were still very limited. Supply side, smelters’ quotes generally stabilized, but in the absence of sizable transactions, current offers more reflected sellers’ stance, and their practical reference value still needs verification. Demand side, the mindset of "rush to buy amid continuous price rise and hold back amid price downturn" continued to dominate. Downstream players were still judging whether the current price platform was a brief pause or a phased bottom, with weak willingness to enter the market and persistently strong wait-and-see sentiment overall. In the short term, prices may mainly move sideways, with limited room to edge down further.
Cobalt salts (Co3O4):
This week, the Co3O4 market continued to be sluggish, with transactions still few and far between.Supply side, after the semiannual period, enterprises that had previously been bearish had successively completed inventory drawdowns, easing concentrated selling pressure, and quotations tended to stabilize. Demand side, although downstream cathode material plants had purchasing windows, during the phase of consolidating at lows they still mainly pushed for lower prices in inquiries and replenished small volumes as needed, with weak willingness to scale up purchases. The depressed market continued to suppress upstream shipment pace. In the short term, Co3O4 trends remained anchored to the price direction on the cobalt salt side, and are expected to mainly follow cobalt chloride in moving sideways within a narrow range.
Cobalt powder and others:
This week, the cobalt powder market remained weak. Although lower quotations appeared, mainstream transaction prices were capped at 470,000 yuan/mt, and the price spread between spot orders and bulk procurement narrowed. July was the traditional off-season for downstream, with demand weakening further MoM. Buyers purchased as needed, with weak willingness to restock. On the raw material side, cobalt carbonate quotations were temporarily stable, but there was room for concessions in actual transactions, and deals around 200,000 yuan/mt could not be ruled out. Producers shipped flexibly based on their own funding and inventory pressure, and there was still room for negotiation in quotes to real clients. Overall, with the Chinese market sluggish in July and outside China about to enter the summer break, demand for cobalt-related products was clearly under pressure. In the short term, prices will mainly consolidate on a weak note, and a rebound will still need to wait for signals of an end-use recovery.
Ternary cathode precursor:
This week, ternary cathode precursor prices weakened. Nickel sulphate and cobalt sulphate prices declined this week, while manganese sulphate prices held steady.
On discounts, for July and Q3 orders, as sulphate raw materials were relatively tight, some producers were willing to raise discounts. For long-term contract, annual agreements for some producers had been settled at the beginning of the year, and payables had not been raised; for quarterly orders, downstream acceptance of higher payables was also relatively weak. For spot order, nickel and cobalt payables for some consumer spot orders in June rose, but with recent nickel and cobalt salt prices relatively weak, payables for July orders were generally under pressure.
On production, top-tier producers’ export orders still performed well this month, and production schedules were at relatively high levels. However, some producers reduced operating rates due to some finished product inventory buildup caused by downstream inventory controls at mid-year.
Looking ahead, sulphate prices recently pulled back overall, and prices for subsequent new orders need to focus on downstream stockpiling pace in Q3.
Ternary cathode material:
This week, ternary cathode material prices edged down.Raw material side, nickel sulphate and cobalt sulphate prices continued to edge down, while lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide prices posted notable declines this week, driving ternary cathode material prices lower. In terms of transactions, market trading remained sluggish recently, mainly because it was still the early-month order execution stage. Although raw material prices fell, battery cell manufacturers had relatively sufficient inventories and no urgent procurement needs. Demand in the EV market remained at historical highs, but no further growth space was seen in the short term; the consumer market was still in the traditional off-season, with overall performance relatively stable. On discounts, there were no significant changes in discounts in either the EV market or the consumer market recently. As the absolute prices of nickel sulphate and cobalt sulphate declined, precursor plants kept discounts firm, but cathode plants’ acceptance of higher discounts remained limited.
LCO:
This week, the LCO market saw limited overall fluctuations, continuing the previous stable yet weak trend.Price fluctuations in lithium carbonate and Co3O4 continued to exert some influence on LCO quotations. Some enterprises made slight adjustments to quotes, but price changes did not drive a pickup in transactions. Demand remained mediocre. Orders from downstream battery plants and end-user clients showed no clear recovery, and with raw material price signals still unclear, buyers mainly procured spot orders for rigid demand, with insufficient willingness to stockpile proactively. Currently, sellers and buyers were still waiting for clearer directional guidance. Going forward, attention should be paid to upstream raw material price trends and whether substantive downstream restocking actions can be initiated
News:
[Tinci Materials: H1 net profit expected at 2.7 billion-3 billion yuan, up 907.84%-1,019.82% YoY] Tinci Materials announced that its net profit for H1 2026 was expected to be 2.7 billion-3 billion yuan, up 907.84%-1,019.82% YoY. During the reporting period, market demand for lithium-ion battery materials electrolyte and LiPF6 products was robust, with sales achieving significant growth and the capacity utilization rate rising steadily; meanwhile, the continuous optimization of the supply-demand pattern in the industry drove product market prices higher, jointly boosting the overall gross margin. According to preliminary statistics, the company’s H1 electrolyte shipments increased by more than 40% YoY. As of June 2026, the capacity utilization rates of the company’s electrolyte and LiPF6 were close to full capacity. Based on downstream clients’ demand forecasts, the company’s electrolyte production schedule in Q3 2026 is expected to increase further QoQ, with downstream demand remaining robust. Based on the current operating status of production lines at various production sites, to meet the continuously growing demand of the downstream market and ensure stable product supply, the company will simultaneously advance the construction of renovation and expansion projects at electrolyte production sites in Jiujiang, Fuding, and other locations, enhancing capacity reserves to support steady medium and long-term business expansion. (Jinshi Data APP)
[NEV market maintained steady growth in H1 this year] The latest data released by CAAM on July 9 showed that from January to June this year, China’s NEV market production, sales, and exports all maintained steady growth. Among them, NEV production and sales reached 7.438 million units and 7.446 million units, respectively, up 6.7% YoY and 7.3% YoY; in June, NEV new-vehicle sales accounted for nearly 60% of total new-vehicle sales. In terms of exports, from January to June, auto exports reached 5.096 million units, up 65.3% YoY, of which NEV exports reached 2.355 million units, up 1.2 times. (CCTV News)
[State Council: Promote the green and low-carbon transformation of the industrial structure and continuously strengthen the competitive advantages of industries such as new energy, NEVs, and power batteries] The State Council issued the "15th Five-Year Plan" Carbon Peaking Action Plan. Promote the green and low-carbon transformation of the industrial structure. Steadily and orderly advance the resolution of structural contradictions in key industry, and phase out backward and inefficient capacity and process equipment in accordance with laws and regulations. Strengthen standardized management of cement capacity. Effectively control "two-high" projects, strengthen source control, strictly implement energy-saving and carbon-reduction review and evaluation, and enforce requirements for carbon-emission equivalent or reduced replacement for new (renovation, expansion) "two-high" industrial projects. Accelerate the development of green energy, green manufacturing, green services, and other green and low-carbon industries; continuously strengthen the competitive advantages of industries such as new energy, NEVs, and power batteries; and cultivate industries such as hydrogen energy and green fuels. Support the development of the carbon management services industry, promote third-party governance models such as energy performance contracting, and advance the empowerment of green and low-carbon development through digital and intelligent technologies. (Chinese Government Website)
SMM New Energy Research Team
Wang Cong 021-51666838
Ma Rui 021-51595780
Lin Ziya 86-2151666902
Feng Disheng 021-51666714
Lyu Yanlin 021-20707875
Zhou Zhicheng 021-51666711
Wang Zihan 021-51666914
Wang Jie 021-51595902
Zhang Haohan 021-51666752
Chen Bolin 021-51666836
Xu Mengqi 021-20707868
