MMi Daily Iron Ore Report (July 16)

Australia's BHP has approved a $900 million investment to develop the Ministers North high-grade iron ore deposit in Western Australia, which is scheduled to begin construction in July 2026 and expects its first ore by the 2028-29 financial year. Once fully ramped up, the satellite project is designed to deliver an annual production capacity of approximately 20 million metric tons (mt), directly supporting BHP's medium-term Western Australia Iron Ore (WAIO) target of exceeding 305 million mt per year. This development follows a record-breaking financial year ending June 30, 2026, where BHP's attributable iron ore output rose by 1% year-on-year to 264.7 million mt, while WAIO output remained strong at 256.9 million mt. For the 2026-27 financial year, the company forecasts total production between 260 million and 272 million mt. From a market perspective, the continuous expansion of designed capacity and the steady injection of new output from projects like Ministers North will significantly reinforce global iron ore supply volumes, potentially easing long-term structural supply constraints and heavily influencing international benchmark pricing trends.

[Iran] Strait sinking and tightened sanctions cripple Iran's semi-finished exports Amid escalating geopolitical tensions, the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz and a new round of US naval activity from July 14, Iran's semi-finished import/export market was quiet this week. A bulk carrier loaded with 43000 tonnes of billet collided and sank in the Strait of Hormuz, adding shipping uncertainty and leaving many vessels stuck at anchorage or cancelling voyages, forcing all seaborne export tenders to halt. Some mills tried offers at 410-415 USD/tonne FOB, but international buyers largely withdrew, with only small billet truck deals booked at the Afghan border. Meanwhile tight supply lifted domestic billet to 423 USD/tonne, sharply inverting domestic and export prices.

[SMM Hot-Rolled Coil Daily Trading Volume] On July 16, the total daily trading volume of hot-rolled coil from sample enterprises in four SMM cities (Shanghai, Lecong, Tianjin, Ningbo) reached 12,620 mt, down 280 mt, or 2.3%, day-on-day, and up 9.36% YoY on a calendar basis while down 0.94% YoY on a lunar calendar basis.