[SMM Analysis] Steel Billet Sees Notable YoY Growth, UAE's Decline Hits a New Low

By product:

Steel billet continued to achieve high growth, while HRC remained the product with the largest decline. In January-May 2026, China's cumulative steel billet exports reached 6.76 million mt (compared with 4.72 million mt in the same period last year), a substantial increase of 2.04 million mt, with growth momentum still strong. This was mainly due to periodic supply-demand mismatch in overseas supply chains and the subsequent impact of global buyers' active inquiries to China, especially the marginal support from purchasing sentiment in markets like Southeast Asia. In contrast, HRC exports plummeted from 10.51 million mt in the same period last year to 7.21 million mt, a decrease of 3.3 million mt, closely related to the implementation of anti-dumping policies on HRC outside China and the high base effect.

Data Source: SMM, General Administration of Customs

By country:

Singapore replaced Djibouti as the top contributor to growth. Its product breakdown pie chart clearly shows that bars (61%) and wire rod (12%) formed the dominant products, together accounting for 73%. As a global shipping and trade settlement hub, Singapore's significant growth was mainly due to concentrated procurement and trade settlement by ASEAN and China-invested construction projects there, providing strong support for China's exports of bars, wire rod, and related infrastructure supporting products. On the decline list, the UAE (down 1.18 million mt), Brazil (down 850,000 mt), Vietnam (down 780,000 mt), and Saudi Arabia (down 570,000 mt) were the main losers, mainly affected by geopolitical uncertainties in the Middle East and the direct impact of trade barrier policies in some regions.

Data Source: SMM, General Administration of Customs

Outlook

According to SMM's latest data on steel export orders, the US-Iran conflict remains volatile in the short term, and amid uncertainty, Middle Eastern buyers will be relatively cautious in procurement. China's export price advantage over other markets continues to narrow, and the overall export order volume is unlikely to improve significantly. However, considering the noticeable decline in sheets & plates transactions last week, some recovery is expected in the short term.

Data Source: SMM

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