Aluminum Alloy Futures Edge Higher, Spot Diverges; Watch Pace of Import Window Opening [ADC12 Price Daily Review]

Futures side: The Aluminum Alloy 2609 contract opened today at 22,865 yuan/mt, with an intraday high of 23,060 yuan/mt and a low of 22,825 yuan/mt, closing at midday at 23,005 yuan/mt, up 180 yuan/mt, or 0.79%. In early trading, prices edged down to the intraday low before bulls stepped in to push them higher, consistently holding above the intraday average price line. During the session, prices repeatedly surged to new intraday highs, with bullish sentiment remaining strong. Short-term bullish momentum recovered, and supported by previous support levels, prices consolidated and trended higher. In the short term, resistance still lies overhead.

Spot side: Today, the willingness to adjust ADC12 prices diverged: rising costs prompted some enterprises to try to follow the increase, while others kept quotes stable for now. The traditional consumption off-season atmosphere is increasingly evident, and downstream orders and transactions remain persistently weak, posing certain resistance to price increases. Given insufficient demand support, enterprises are mainly observing the market and maintaining stable prices while selling. In the short term, spot ADC12 prices are expected to continue showing a pattern of cost support coexisting with demand pressure, mainly moving sideways.

Import side, overseas ADC12 offers were in the range of $3,100–$3,200/mt, and the price spread between Chinese and overseas markets continued to narrow. If overseas offers continue to pull back, the import profit window is expected to gradually open, at which point increased imports will provide some supplement to the tight domestic supply.