This week, spot lithium carbonate prices continued to drift lower, with the price center moving further down to around the 150,000 yuan/mt level. The futures market consolidated on a subdued note, with the most-traded 2609 contract fluctuating from an initial range of 147,800-153,600 yuan/mt early in the week to 145,900-152,500 yuan/mt, hitting a mid-week low of 145,900 yuan/mt—a fresh recent low. Open interest first declined then rose, as the tug-of-war between longs and shorts persisted.
Market trading showed a standoff pattern of “downstream dip-buying while upstream held back from selling,” with actual transactions relatively active. Upstream lithium chemical plants showed extremely low willingness to sell amid the rapid price decline, with sentiment toward holding back from selling intensifying. Some spot order quotes were still maintained above 160,000 yuan/mt, as a clear intent to hold prices firm emerged. Downstream material plants showed fairly active buying sentiment below 150,000 yuan/mt, but large-scale concentrated restocking had yet to appear, and purchasing behavior remained cautious, mainly driven by rigid demand. Overall, market inquiries and actual transactions continued to be relatively active, but the psychological price gap between upstream and downstream persisted.
On the supply side, production kept falling, and inventory differentiation across the industry chain continued. Lithium carbonate production declined further this week, mainly due to some lithium chemical plants entering maintenance as planned, leading to a noticeable reduction in spodumene-based output. From the perspective of inventory changes: upstream lithium chemical plants saw slight in-factory inventory buildup due to extremely low willingness to sell and holding back from selling; downstream material plants’ purchase willingness recovered somewhat WoW, but purchasing was cautious due to the still-rapid downward trajectory of prices, resulting in a modest overall inventory buildup; trader inventories destocked more significantly, as downstream procurement improved marginally, compounded by plants’ holding back from selling and traders’ own capital pressures.
Looking ahead, short-term lithium carbonate prices may continue to consolidate on a subdued note, but downside below 150,000 yuan/mt is limited. On the supply side, ongoing maintenance at some lithium chemical plants and shrinking production are providing some floor support to prices. However, on the demand side, downstream purchases remain cautious and rigid-demand-oriented, lacking a large-scale concentrated restocking driver, so prices lack upward momentum. The core contradiction in the current market is: below 150,000 yuan/mt, downstream purchase willingness strengthens, providing a floor for prices; but upstream holding prices firm and holding back from selling coexists with cautious downstream buying, leaving prices lacking sustained rebound momentum. It is expected that lithium prices will consolidate in the range of 145,000-160,000 yuan/mt in the near term. It is recommended to focus on the defense of the psychological 150,000 yuan/mt level, changes in downstream restocking pace, and the progress of maintenance recovery at lithium chemical plants.
![[SMM Weekly Review] Cobalt Market Under Pressure in Off-Season, Intermediate Product Standoff Continues](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/WgbTp20251217171727.jpg)
![[SMM Analysis] Spot lithium carbonate prices drifted lower, and downstream buying the dip was active.](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/oVqJl20251217171730.jpg)
