[SMM Analysis] Spot lithium carbonate prices drifted lower, and downstream buying the dip was active.

Today, SMM battery-grade spot lithium carbonate prices drifted lower from the previous trading day. In futures, the lithium carbonate 2609 contract opened lower at 149,000 yuan/mt, then drifted lower after opening. During the morning session, it moved sideways below the average price line, hitting a low of 145,900 yuan/mt. Near midday and into the afternoon, bulls entered aggressively, quickly pushing the price above the average line and continuing its rise to approach a high of 152,500 yuan/mt. During the late session, the price consolidated at highs and pulled back slightly, ultimately edging up 0.07% to 151,700 yuan/mt. Open interest increased by 3,170 lots.

In the spot market, downstream players bought the dip, with buying sentiment being relatively active below 150,000 yuan/mt. Upstream sellers kept spot order prices firm, holding quotes relatively steady. Overall, market inquiries and actual transactions remained relatively active. This week, lithium carbonate production continued its downward trend, mainly as some lithium chemical plants entered maintenance as planned, leading to a significant reduction in spodumene line output. Looking at transactions and inventory changes, both futures and spot lithium carbonate prices fell considerably this week. Under such market conditions, upstream lithium chemical plants had extremely low willingness to sell, and sentiment to hold back from selling intensified, leading to a slight buildup in in-factory inventory. Procurement enthusiasm at downstream material plants rebounded WoW, but as prices remained on a rapid downward trajectory, their purchasing behavior stayed cautious, resulting in a slight overall inventory buildup. Meanwhile, at trader level, destocking was relatively significant, driven by marginal improvement in downstream procurement, held-back selling from chemical plants, and their own capital constraints. Overall, inventory divergence across different segments was clear, and the tug-of-war between sellers and buyers persisted.