Industry-Wide Supply Decline, Limited Spot Price Gains [SMM SiMn Weekly Review]

As of this Friday, SiMn 6517 (cash) in north China stood at 5,750-5,800 yuan/mt, with prices up WoW. In south China, SiMn 6517 (cash) was at 5,800-5,850 yuan/mt, up WoW, while SiMn 6014 (cash) was at 5,350-5,400 yuan/mt, down WoW.

Recently, SiMn futures consolidated on a subdued note, and the market saw a strong wait-and-see sentiment. Spot prices edged up, but futures struggled to drive spot cargo significantly higher.

Cost side: Ore side, spot manganese ore prices stayed high. Electricity side, electricity prices in Guangxi and Guizhou remained elevated after being raised, with no signs of coming down. Yunnan is about to enter the rainy season, with electricity prices about to be lowered. Parts of Inner Mongolia experienced power rationing during the light-wind season, and electricity prices may be raised. Amid these intersecting factors, SiMn total production costs stayed high, putting smelters under significant pressure.

Supply side: Operations in Inner Mongolia remained relatively stable, but most producers reported severe losses amid maintenance and load reductions, with capacity release and BF maintenance occurring simultaneously. Ningxia producers deepened production cuts. South China alloy producers overall operated at low rates, with few shipment opportunities and a sluggish trading atmosphere. Industry-wide supply declined, while finished product inventories at enterprises stayed high. High destocking pressure weighed on SiMn spot and futures prices in the near term.

Demand side: End-use consumption of alloys was sluggish. Overall downstream purchasing sentiment remained weak, and steel mills and traders stayed cautious on restocking, offering limited near-term support to the SiMn market. Steel mill tenders rolled in one after another. HBIS’s July 2026 SiMn purchase volume was 15,400 mt, flat MoM. Its initial inquiry stood at 5,900 yuan/mt, with a final price set at 5,950 yuan/mt, offering limited boost to the market, and shipment sentiment remained subdued.

Under a loose supply-demand balance, SiMn is expected to consolidate on a subdued note in the near term. Market attention will remain on SiMn supply-demand shifts and futures fluctuations.