Cast Aluminum Futures Retreat After Rapid Rise, Spot Aluminum Runs Steadily in Off-Season [ADC12 Price Daily Review]

Futures: The aluminum alloy 2609 contract opened higher in the day session today but subsequently weakened. The contract opened at 23,185 yuan/mt in early trading, surged to a session high of 23,260 yuan/mt intraday before bullish momentum rapidly faded, and prices continued to drift lower, hitting a low of 22,920 yuan/mt. At midday, it closed at 22,950 yuan/mt, down 225 yuan/mt from the settlement price, a decline of 0.97%. Volume surged briefly during the early-session run-up, after which bears steadily stepped in to push the market lower. The intraday price line stayed below the average price throughout, underscoring pressure on the futures. Total trading volume for the session was 6,429 lots, and open interest increased slightly by 112 lots. The KD indicator turned downward, entering weak territory. In the short term, the futures market lacks sufficient rebound momentum, overall consolidating on a weak note after retreating from the intraday high.

Spot: The ADC12 spot market held largely steady today. The SMM ADC12 assessment was flat at 24,100 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The secondary aluminum alloy market remains in the off-season, with limited downstream order release, end-user procurement staying largely hand-to-mouth, and subdued overall trading activity, offering insufficient support for price increases from the demand side. At the same time, aluminum prices moved sideways, and aluminum scrap prices fluctuated only modestly, with no significant shifts on the cost side providing little impetus for producers to adjust prices. Amid a weak supply-demand balance, the market lacks fresh directional drivers, and enterprises are largely adopting a go-with-the-flow, steady-shipment strategy. Given still somewhat tight aluminum scrap supply and persisting cost support, while any demand improvement will need to wait for the traditional peak season, the ADC12 market is expected to continue to consolidate narrowly in the short term, with prices predominantly stable. Further attention should be paid to aluminum price moves, aluminum scrap availability, and the pace of downstream order recovery.