【SMM Analysis】Ternary Cathode Production in June Expected to See Slight Decline

This week, ternary cathode material prices declined notably. On the raw material front, nickel sulfate and cobalt sulfate prices continued their downward trend, while lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide, influenced by supply-side sentiment, dropped sharply at the beginning of the week and then moved lower amid volatility.

In terms of transaction sentiment, the EV market is approaching the month-end procurement period, and manufacturers have largely entered negotiations for Q3 orders. Upstream suppliers remain firm on payables, but with raw material prices expected to weaken in July, cathode producers' acceptance of payable increases is limited for now. Currently, payables in the EV market are expected to see little change in July. In the consumer market, with lithium salt prices dropping sharply at the start of the week to a relatively low level, most cathode manufacturers carried out restocking of raw materials, and battery cell makers also placed bulk orders. However, this still falls within the scope of need-based restocking, with no significant growth in overall demand.

On production schedules, June marks the mid-year point, and manufacturers generally have a need to control inventory levels. Combined with relatively high raw material settlement prices this month, June output is expected to see a slight decline, with some orders likely deferred to July.