Analysis of Nickel Ore Import Data for September 2024 [SMM Analysis]

SMM reported on October 21 that according to the latest data from China Customs, in September 2024, China's nickel ore imports amounted to 4.5662 million mt, down 7.4% MoM and 23.5% YoY, with a cumulative YoY decline of 14%. Among these, sulfide ore was about 38,700 mt, down 15.5% MoM and 54.3% YoY; oxide ore was 4.4735 million mt, down 8.4% MoM and 23.9% YoY, with a cumulative YoY decline of 14.5%. From the perspective of major importing countries, nickel ore imports from the Philippines were 4.3647 million mt, down 8.5% MoM and 20.99% YoY; imports from New Caledonia were 47,500 mt, marking a return after two months of no imports. Imports from Guatemala were 23,600 mt, up 123.72% MoM. There were no nickel ore imports from Australia this month.

From the September nickel ore import data, the Philippines, as China's main source of nickel ore imports, saw its low-grade nickel ore exports to China decrease compared to previous months, but the overall export share remained above 50%. Medium-grade nickel ore accounted for nearly one-third of the total exports to China. Additionally, some high-grade nickel ore from the Philippines was released into the Chinese market during the month. Despite China remaining the main export destination for Philippine laterite nickel ore in September, the overall volume of medium-grade nickel ore exported to Indonesia from the Philippines did not show a declining trend. The main reason for this was that the new progress in Indonesia's laterite nickel ore RKAB quota was not realized in the Indonesian market as expected in September. With the new progress in Indonesia's RKAB quota expected to be realized in October, the demand for Philippine nickel ore is expected to decline significantly, and the share of Philippine laterite nickel ore exports to China is expected to increase further in October. However, considering the approaching rainy season in the Philippines and the recent typhoon weather, the efficiency of shipping and delivery of Philippine laterite nickel ore may be limited, and some shipments may be delayed. Therefore, the total export volume of Philippine laterite nickel ore to China in October may experience some fluctuations.