[SMM Sheets & Plates Daily Review] Demand Recovery Amid High Inventory Pressure; HRC Prices Fluctuate Weakly
Today, HRC futures consolidated slightly higher, with the most-traded HC2701 contract closing at 3,242 yuan/mt, up 0.03% for the day. Spot market prices were mostly stable, with intraday trading on the weak side. According to SMM's weekly HRC balance data released today, HRC production continued to pull back, with weekly production at 3.1631 million mt. On the inventory side, HRC social inventory across 86 warehouses nationwide (large sample) tracked by SMM stood at 5.0271 million mt, down 38,400 mt WoW, or -0.76% WoW, and up 17.25% YoY on the new calendar basis. By region, all markets saw slight inventory declines except east China, which posted a small inventory buildup. Post-holiday purchasing pace among traders warmed up again, with mill inventories down 22,800 mt over the same period, and total inventory shifted from an increase to a decrease. Demand recovery was notable, up 356,300 mt WoW. On the cost side, the second round of coke price cuts has been implemented, and the market currently expects around three rounds of cuts in total, weakening cost support somewhat. Overall, HRC prices are expected to remain in the doldrums in the near term under pressure from high inventory.