[Анализ SMM] Ослабление поддержки затрат ведет к снижению цен на никелевую соль

Indian stainless steel MSMEs and industry bodies flagged a sharp jump in imports after a quality-control (QCO/BIS) exemption lapsed, urging the government to reinstate the Quality Control Order. Citing official data, they said stainless imports hit 101,252 mt in April 2026, up 65% from 61,143 mt a year earlier and 69% above March's 59,917 mt, and warned volumes could climb further without intervention. The exemption—covering 200- and 300-series flat products (standards IS 6911, IS 5522, IS 15997) for shipments loaded by 31 March 2026—was meant to ease MSME raw-material access but is seen as enabling cheap, often Chinese, inflows. Reinstating the QCO would tighten 200/300-series flat imports and adds to New Delhi's broader steel-protection push.

Under the EU's new steel trade regime, importers must prove the 'country of melt and pour'—where steel or iron was first produced in liquid form and cast into its first solid state—to improve supply-chain traceability. Evidence such as a mill test certificate is required from 1 October 2026; melt-and-pour data will feed into country quota distribution from 1 October 2027; and by 30 June 2028 the Commission will assess whether to make melt-and-pour the basis for quota eligibility, possibly via a legislative proposal. The rule targets origin-washing, raising the cost of routing non-EU steel—including Chinese stainless—through third countries to dodge quotas and duties.

The EU's new steel trade regime (Regulation 2026/1384) applies from 1 July 2026, replacing the 2019 safeguard that expires 30 June and lifting the out-of-quota duty to 50% from 25%. Within an 18.35 million-tonne total annual tariff-rate quota, stainless gets category-specific caps: cold-rolled sheets and strips 496,342 t, hot-rolled sheets and strips 153,186 t, hot-rolled quarto plate 17,025 t, bars and light sections 133,595 t, wire rod 40,462 t, and seamless tubes and pipes 32,967 t—about 873,577 t of stainless in total. Quotas run 1 July–30 June and are administered quarterly. Once a category's quota fills, further imports face the 50% duty, double the prior 25% penalty, tightening access for non-EU stainless.