[SMM HRC Daily Trading Volume] Spot HRC trading improved slightly

[Turkey] Dragged down by market weakness, Turkish domestic rebar prices edged down by 1 USD/tonne to 591.5 USD/tonne EXW. As the depreciation of the lira continues to push up local currency costs, domestic traders have largely adopted promotional pricing strategies, offloading inventories at levels below mill dollar offers. Although mills attempted to hold prices firm last week, they were forced to compromise amid sluggish demand: some mills in the Marmara region lowered their offers by 5 USD/tonne to 605-610 USD/tonne EXW, while offers from Izmir mills also dropped to 585-590 USD/tonne EXW. On the macroeconomic front, rising costs stemming from geopolitical conflicts and a high-interest-rate environment continue to suppress downstream demand, with the market generally expecting limited room for a summer construction rebound. Export activity remains equally subdued, with EU buyers showing insufficient interest in purchasing Turkish material.

Today, the most-traded HRC contract fluctuated downward and closed at 3,361 in late trading, down 0.59% from the previous session. A late-session rebound in coking coal futures from their limit-down lent some support to HRC futures. Spot sheets & plates fell by 10-20 yuan/mt. Supply side, this week’s impact from hot-rolling maintenance was 74,100 mt, down 156,400 mt WoW. Next week’s impact will be 23,100 mt, down 51,000 mt WoW. Supply pressure this month continued its uptrend. Demand side, futures rose in late trading, boosting transaction activity somewhat, but buying remained largely as needed. Cost side, coking coal futures plunged in both night and day sessions after the Shaanxi Provincial Development and Reform Commission proposed ensuring supply last night. However, the spot supply-demand balance for coking coal and coke stayed tight, suggesting they may not extend steep losses in the near term. In summary, HRC’s underlying contradictions have yet to fully emerge in the short term, but cost support has weakened somewhat. The market will likely continue fluctuating weakly in the near term.

The DCE iron ore futures moved weakly today. The most-traded contract, I2609, closed at 760 yuan/mt, down 0.20% from the previous trading day. Port spot prices remained largely unchanged from the prior day.