Nonfarm Payrolls Beat Expectations, Weighing on Silver Prices; Spot Silver Quotes Gradually Moving Toward Parity [SMM Daily Review]

Today, SMM's 10:00 assessment for Shanghai Gold Exchange Ag (T+D) was 16,359 yuan/kg, with the premium range at TD-5 to +5 yuan/kg, averaging parity at 0 yuan/kg.

On the macro front, last Friday, US non-farm payrolls data came in stronger than expected, causing expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes to surge. Silver plunged 8.11% in a single day, falling below the $70 mark. However, US-Iran peace talks remain uncertain, and the PBOC has increased its gold reserves for 19 consecutive months, providing long-term support for precious metals. This Wednesday, US CPI data and the Fed's rate decision will be key variables for short-term trends.

In the spot market, the sharp drop in silver prices to some extent stimulated downstream purchasing interest. Today, suppliers' quotations gradually shifted to premiums, but new transaction feedback had yet to emerge. In the Shanghai region, morning quotations were mainly concentrated from TD-5 yuan/kg to small premiums, with suppliers showing strong willingness to hold prices firm, and transactions mostly centered around parity. Given strong expectations for a short-term decline in silver prices, most suppliers quoted and stayed on the sidelines, while downstream players held a "rush to buy amid continuous price rise and hold back amid price downturn" mentality, making cautious purchases. In other regions, low-priced supply was largely cleared, and discounts narrowed significantly.

Overall, the macro situation remains highly uncertain. Last week's US economic data dragged silver prices lower, putting them under pressure. Going forward, close attention should be paid to geopolitical conflicts and economic data for guidance. In the spot market, driven by lower prices, quotations gradually moved toward parity, and the subsequent trend will depend on the momentum from new transactions this week.