Metals Show Mixed Performance, Lithium Carbonate Falls for Third Consecutive Day, SHFE Tin, SHFE Copper, and SHFE Zinc Rise Over 1%, Polysilicon and Alumina Lead Declines [SMM Midday Review]

SMM June 3 News:

Metals market:

As of the midday close, base metals on the domestic market rose nearly across the board. SHFE copper gained 1.03%, SHFE aluminum rose 0.45%, SHFE lead rose 0.45%, SHFE zinc gained 1.61%, SHFE tin rose 1.83%, and SHFE nickel fell 0.64%.

In addition, the most-traded casting aluminum futures rose 0.39%, and the most-traded alumina futures fell 1.51%. The most-traded lithium carbonate futures continued the downtrend from the previous two trading days, falling 2.58%. The most-traded silicon metal futures rose 0.63%. The most-traded polysilicon futures fell 1.96%.

Ferrous metals showed mixed performance. Iron ore was flat at 784.5 yuan/mt, rebar edged down 0.09%, hot-rolled coil fell 0.21%, and stainless steel rose 0.2%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract fell 0.26%, and the most-traded coke contract rose 0.18%.

Overseas base metals, as of 11:41, LME metals showed mixed performance. LME copper fell 0.34%, LME aluminum rose 0.17%, LME lead and LME nickel both fell within 0.4%. LME zinc and LME tin edged up.

Precious metals, as of 11:41, COMEX gold fell 0.16% and COMEX silver fell 0.29%. Domestic precious metals: the most-traded SHFE gold contract rose 0.07%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract rose 0.18%.

In addition, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures fell 0.82%, and the most-traded palladium futures rose 1.02%.

As of the midday close, the most-traded Europe containerized freight index contract fell 0.67%, closing at 3,758 points.

As of 11:41 on June 3, midday futures quotes for selected contracts:

Spot and fundamentals

Copper:Today, #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract in North China were reported at an average discount of 400 yuan/mt to a discount of 300 yuan/mt, with the average discount of 350 yuan/mt down 20 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average transaction price was 106,360 yuan/mt, up 825 yuan/mt from the previous trading day...

Macro front

China:

[PBOC reverse repo operations achieved a net withdrawal of 177.6 billion yuan on the day]The PBOC conducted zero reverse repo operations today. As 177.6 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repos matured today, a net withdrawal of 177.6 billion yuan was achieved on the day.

[Zibo, Shandong: Optimizing housing provident fund usage policies]Zibo officially implemented new optimized provident fund policies, adopting multiple measures to boost housing consumption and safeguard residents' essential and upgrading housing needs. The new policies broadened the scope of provident fund withdrawals, allowing down payment and owner-occupied housing withdrawals to be linked with funds from the homebuyer's spouse, both parents, and children. Elevator installation withdrawals were also expanded to include old elevator replacement scenarios. Lending side, housing unit count can be reduced for families with multiple children, purchases of high-grade residential properties or completed homes, and one loan record can be waived for trade-in policies; the upper limit of second-hand housing age plus loan term was raised to 50 years, and the lending ban on properties over 300㎡ was lifted. The new policy added loan extension services, while opening up commercial-to-provident fund and commercial-to-combined loan conversions for flexible employment workers, further reducing residents' home purchase and repayment costs.

US dollar:

As of 11:41, the US dollar index rose 0.03% to 99.24. US April JOLTs job openings surged from 6.89 million in March to 7.62 million, reaching the highest level in nearly two years, while layoffs declined. These signs indicated that the labour market remained robust despite pressure on enterprises from rising energy costs caused by the Iran war. The professional and business services sector accounted for nearly all of the increase. Total hiring fell to 5.12 million, partially offsetting the sharp increase in March, while layoffs also declined to 1.69 million. These data suggested that US labour demand has stabilized this year compared to near-zero job growth in 2025. Although job openings remained well below levels reached during the post-pandemic reopening period, this stability may further undermine the case for interest rate cuts, with US Fed officials increasingly discussing the possibility of rate hikes.

According to CME "FedWatch": the probability of the US Fed maintaining rates unchanged through June was 98.6%, with a 1.4% probability of a cumulative 25 basis point interest rate cut. The probability of the US Fed maintaining rates unchanged through July was 92.4%, with a 6.3% probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike, and a 1.3% probability of a cumulative 25 basis point interest rate cut.

Fed Chairman Waller has hired two outside individuals as advisors to assist him in the early stages of his tenure; one of them co-authored a conservative policy blueprint that recommended sweeping structural reforms to the US Fed. According to people familiar with the matter, one of the advisors is Paul Winfree. He served as a White House domestic policy expert during Trump's first term. He is also a credited author of the US Fed chapter in "Project 2025," a conservative policy blueprint developed ahead of the 2024 election. The other advisor is Daniel Heil, a policy fellow at Stanford University's Hoover Institution who served as an economic policy advisor to the 2016 presidential campaign team. His recent writings have primarily focused on cutting federal healthcare spending costs and social security issues. Both individuals have long been active in conservative policy circles, and their professional backgrounds lie in areas outside the US Fed's core responsibilities. A person familiar with the matter said the two advisors would work on temporary contracts to assist Warsh with policy analysis and planning; Warsh has not yet made a final decision on whether they will take on longer-term, formal job titles within the US Fed. (Jin10 Data APP)

Other currencies:

Traders were reluctant to push the yen exchange rate above the key 160 level amid the risk of intervention by Japanese authorities to support the yen. The yen edged down to near 160 in early Wednesday trading, touching its weakest level since the authorities intervened in late April. The yen still declined despite Japan spending a record 11.73 trillion yen ($73.35 billion) to support the currency between April 28 and May 27. Finance Minister Katayama Satsuki reiterated on Wednesday that the authorities were prepared to respond to foreign exchange fluctuations at any time as needed. Gaitame.com Research Institute analyst Nakamura Tsutomu said: "As USD/JPY approaches the 160 level, intervention concerns are escalating rapidly, triggering a psychological battle in the market, but a test of 160 could happen at any time. With almost no signs of a breakthrough in US-Iran permanent ceasefire negotiations, pressure on the yen is increasing. The large interest rate differential between the US and Japan is also putting the yen under pressure after the Bank of Japan kept rates unchanged in April. Bank of Japan Governor Ueda Kazuo is scheduled to speak on Wednesday afternoon, his last scheduled speech before the central bank's rate-setting meeting on June 16." Overnight index swaps indicated the probability of a rate hike this month was approximately 84%. (Jin10 Data APP)

Australia's economic growth slowed more than expected last quarter as households cut spending in the face of rising fuel costs and higher interest rates. Government data released on Wednesday showed GDP grew 0.3% in the first three months of the year, below expectations and roughly one-third of the Q4 2025 growth rate. The 2.5% annual growth rate also fell short of expectations. The head of national accounts at the Australian Bureau of Statistics said: "Economic growth slowed in the March quarter, with mild household and public sector spending. Rising interest rates and significantly higher fuel costs in March likely created an environment of more cautious consumer behavior." Swap traders consolidated the view that the probability of a rate hike at the August meeting was only slightly above 50%, and maintained the view that the Reserve Bank of Australia may raise rates once more before year-end. (Jin10 Data APP)

Data:

Data to be released today include US May ADP employment, US May S&P Global Services PMI final, US May ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, US April factory orders month-over-month, France May Services PMI final, Eurozone May Services PMI final, Eurozone April PPI month-over-month, Germany May Services PMI final, UK May Services PMI final, and Australia Q1 GDP annual rate.

In addition, attention should be paid to: Bank of Japan Governor Ueda Kazuo will deliver a speech, and US Fed Governor Barr will participate in a dialogue at the 2026 Community Development Bankers Association Peer Forum.

Crude oil:

As of 11:41, oil prices in both markets rose, with WTI up 0.92% and Brent up 0.82%. According to CCTV News: On June 2 local time, the US Central Command stated that US forces took action against an oil tanker heading to an Iranian port in the Arabian Gulf and disabled it. The war between Iran and the US has yet to reach a conclusion, diplomatic negotiations have stalled, and military conflicts in the Gulf region continue to escalate. A series of developments indicate that this conflict, which erupted in late February this year, continues to drain all parties through repeated frictions. Oil prices rose after the news broke. (Wallstreetcn)

US API crude oil inventory for the week ending May 29 was -6.757 million barrels, vs. expectations of -3.605 million barrels and a prior value of -2.819 million barrels. US API gasoline inventory for the week ending May 29 was 3.454 million barrels, vs. expectations of -98,000 barrels and a prior value of -3.199 million barrels. (Jin10 Data APP)

Spot market overview:

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